Trial reportAnnals of the rheumatic diseases2011
Predicting the outcome of ankylosing spondylitis therapy.
Trial report in Annals of the rheumatic diseases, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 78 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
78 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 189 citations in OpenAlex.
- A guideline on biomarkers in the diagnosis and evaluation in axial spondyloarthritis.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Guideline
- Korean treatment recommendations for patients with axial spondyloarthritis.The Korean journal of internal medicine · 2023Guideline
- [Long version on the S3 guidelines for axial spondyloarthritis including Bechterew's disease and early forms, Update 2019 : Evidence-based guidelines of the German Society for Rheumatology (DGRh) and participating medical scientific specialist societies and other organizations].Zeitschrift fur Rheumatologie · 2019Guideline
- [German Society for Rheumatology S3 guidelines on axial spondyloarthritis including Bechterew's disease and early forms: 8.4 Pharmaceutical therapy, 8.5 Evaluation of therapy success of pharmaceutical measures].Zeitschrift fur Rheumatologie · 2014Guideline
- Ivarmacitinib in patients with active ankylosing spondylitis: subgroup analysis based on key baseline features from a phase II/III trial.Clinical rheumatology · 2026Trial
- Ixekizumab in radiographic axial spondyloarthritis with and without elevated C-reactive protein or positive magnetic resonance imaging.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2022Trial
- Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Golimumab in Ankylosing Spondylitis Patients With Early and Late Disease Through One Year of the GO-ALIVE Study.Journal of clinical rheumatology : practical reports on rheumatic & musculoskeletal diseases · 2022Trial
- Evaluation of adalimumab biosimilar candidate (HS016) in Chinese patients with active ankylosing spondylitis based on a health survey: sub-analysis of a phase 3 study.Clinical rheumatology · 2022Trial
- Predictors of long-term clinical response in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis receiving certolizumab pegol.Arthritis research & therapy · 2021Trial
- Trial
- Early Disease Activity or Clinical Response as Predictors of Long-Term Outcomes With Certolizumab Pegol in Axial Spondyloarthritis or Psoriatic Arthritis.Arthritis care & research · 2017Trial
- Prediction of remission and low disease activity in disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug-refractory patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with golimumab.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2016Trial
- Assessment of clinical efficacy and safety in a randomized double-blind study of etanercept and sulfasalazine in patients with ankylosing spondylitis from Eastern/Central Europe, Latin America, and Asia.Rheumatology international · 2016Trial
- Predicting and verifying outcome of Tripterygium wilfordii Hook F. based therapy in rheumatoid arthritis: from open to double-blinded randomized trial.Scientific reports · 2015Trial
- Good correlation between changes in objective and subjective signs of inflammation in patients with short- but not long duration of axial spondyloarthritis treated with tumor necrosis factor-blockers.Arthritis research & therapy · 2014Trial
- Efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis: results of a randomised placebo-controlled trial (ABILITY-1).Annals of the rheumatic diseases · 2013Trial
- Early response to adalimumab predicts long-term remission through 5 years of treatment in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.Annals of the rheumatic diseases · 2012Trial
- Efficacy of Ixekizumab in Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis by Baseline C-Reactive Protein Level: A Pooled Analysis of Phase III Trials.Rheumatology and therapy · 2026Article
- Defining and validating a high specificity MRI cut-off for the radiographic part of the modified New York criteria in patients with axial spondyloarthritis.Arthritis research & therapy · 2026Observational
- HLA-B27 detection test for individuals with suspected axial spondyloarthritis to Brazilian public health system: accuracy, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact analysis.GMS health innovation and technologies · 2026Article
18 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
13 authors at 12 institutions in 7 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo create a model that provides a potential basis for candidate selection for anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) treatment by predicting future outcomes relative to the current disease profile of individual patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS).
methodsASSERT and GO-RAISE trial data (n=635) were analysed to identify baseline predictors for various disease-state and disease-activity outcome instruments in AS. Univariate, multivariate, receiver operator characteristic and correlation analyses were performed to select final predictors. Their associations with outcomes were explored. Matrix and algorithm-based prediction models were created using logistic and linear regression, and their accuracies were compared. Numbers needed to treat were calculated to compare the effect size of anti-TNF therapy between the AS matrix subpopulations. Data from registry populations were applied to study how a daily practice AS population is distributed over the prediction model.
resultsAge, Bath ankylosing spondylitis functional index (BASFI) score, enthesitis, therapy, C-reactive protein (CRP) and HLA-B27 genotype were identified as predictors. Their associations with each outcome instrument varied. However, the combination of these factors enabled adequate prediction of each outcome studied. The matrix model predicted outcomes as well as algorithm-based models and enabled direct comparison of the effect size of anti-TNF treatment outcome in various subpopulations. The trial populations reflected the daily practice AS population.
conclusionAge, BASFI, enthesitis, therapy, CRP and HLA-B27 were associated with outcomes in AS. Their combined use enables adequate prediction of outcome resulting from anti-TNF and conventional therapy in various AS subpopulations. This may help guide clinicians in making treatment decisions in daily practice.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.