ArticleBMC public health2011
Modelling the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the risk of pandemic influenza infection.
Article in BMC public health, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Interactions between zoonotic pathogens and infectious disease spread: Why understanding mechanisms and modelling matters more than ever.Biosafety and health · 2025Review
- Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- The interactions of SARS-CoV-2 with cocirculating pathogens: Epidemiological implications and current knowledge gaps.PLoS pathogens · 2023Review
- Optimal Management of Public Perceptions During A Flu Outbreak: A Game-Theoretic Perspective.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Interaction Among Influenza Viruses A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B in Japan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Impact on Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine Efficacy.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2019Observational
- Effects of pathogen dependency in a multi-pathogen infectious disease system including population level heterogeneity - a simulation study.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
- Interval Between Infections and Viral Hierarchy Are Determinants of Viral Interference Following Influenza Virus Infection in a Ferret Model.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2015Article
- Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy.Epidemics · 2014Article
- The Possible Impact of Vaccination for Seasonal Influenza on Emergence of Pandemic Influenza via Reassortment.PloS one · 2014Article
- Understanding the dynamics of seasonal influenza in Italy: incidence, transmissibility and population susceptibility in a 9-year period.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2013Article
- Article
- How is vaccine effectiveness scaled by the transmission dynamics of interacting pathogen strains with cross-protective immunity?PloS one · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRecent studies have suggested that vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccine resulted in an apparent higher risk of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009. A simple mathematical model incorporating strain competition and a hypothesised temporary strain-transcending immunity is constructed to investigate this observation. The model assumes that seasonal vaccine has no effect on the risk of infection with pandemic influenza.
resultsResults of the model over a range of reproduction numbers and effective vaccination coverage confirm this apparent increased risk in the Northern, but not the Southern, hemisphere. This is due to unvaccinated individuals being more likely to be infected with seasonal influenza (if it is circulating) and developing hypothesised temporary immunity to the pandemic strain. Because vaccinated individuals are less likely to have been infected with seasonal influenza, they are less likely to have developed the hypothesised temporary immunity and are therefore more likely to be infected with pandemic influenza. If the reproduction number for pandemic influenza is increased, as it is for children, an increase in the apparent risk of seasonal vaccination is observed. The maximum apparent risk effect is found when seasonal vaccination coverage is in the range 20-40%.
conclusionsOnly when pandemic influenza is recently preceded by seasonal influenza circulation is there a modelled increased risk of pandemic influenza infection associated with prior receipt of seasonal vaccine.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.