SynthesisEpidemics2010
HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa.
Synthesis in Epidemics, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
39 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Epidemiology of gonorrhea in countries of the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review, meta analyses, and meta regressions.BMC global and public health · 2024Pooled it
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in Canada: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review, meta-analyses and metaregressions.Sexually transmitted infections · 2021Pooled it
- Global epidemiology ofSexually transmitted infections · 2021Pooled it
- HSV-2 as a biomarker of HIV epidemic potential in female sex workers: meta-analysis, global epidemiology and implications.Scientific reports · 2020Pooled it
- Epidemiology ofJournal of global health · 2019Pooled it
- Herpes simplex virus type 1 epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.Scientific reports · 2019Pooled it
- Global population-level association between herpes simplex virus 2 prevalence and HIV prevalence.AIDS (London, England) · 2018Pooled it
- Using hepatitis C prevalence to estimate HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2015Pooled it
- The epidemiology of HIV infection in Morocco: systematic review and data synthesis.International journal of STD & AIDS · 2013Pooled it
- Oxidative stress, inflammation, and apoptosis in Alzheimer's disease associated with HSV-1 and CMV coinfection.Virology journal · 2025Trial
- Quantifying population-level sexual risk behavior through HSV-2 transmission dynamics in the United States, 1950-2020.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Prevalence of syphilis infection among migrant workers in Qatar: a nationwide cross-sectional survey.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in the United States: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.iScience · 2024Article
- Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 among the migrant workers in Qatar.Virology journal · 2023Article
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Europe: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2023Article
- Mathematical modeling of HIV-HCV co-infection model: Impact of parameters on reproduction number.F1000Research · 2022Article
- Seroprevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis Among Female Adults in the United States: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA.
methodsWe designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA.
resultsWe found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present.
conclusionsHSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited.
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Registered trials
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