ArticleEpidemics2009
The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain.
Article in Epidemics, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 2.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Human mobility and outbreak origins in epidemic spread: Insights from agent-based modeling.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A Systematic Review of Spatial Epidemiological Modeling Approaches Applied During the COVID-19 Pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Emulating computer models with high-dimensional count output.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025Article
- The Role of Mobility in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Andalusia.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Disparate patterns of movements and visits to points of interest located in urban hotspots across US metropolitan cities during COVID-19.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Disease control across urban-rural gradients.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Associating COVID-19 Severity with Urban Factors: A Case Study of Wuhan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- The duration of travel impacts the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Web monitoring of emerging animal infectious diseases integrated in the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System.PloS one · 2018Article
- Assessing the use of mobile phone data to describe recurrent mobility patterns in spatial epidemic models.Royal Society open science · 2017Article
- Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2016Article
- Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England.Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Spatial and Functional Organization of Pig Trade in Different European Production Systems: Implications for Disease Prevention and Control.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2016Article
- Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2015Article
- Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities.Parasites & vectors · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Mathematical models of infectious disease spread are important tools for assessing the threat of a novel pathogen and offer the best information for mitigating an outbreak. Here we present a metapopulation model of disease spread in Great Britain defined at the level of electoral wards. Using data from the United Kingdom 2001 census and the National Travel Survey to define the amount of travel performed by individuals between wards, we examine the effect of assumptions on the regularity of travel. Routine, daily commuter-type movements, characteristic of the working population are shown to lead to a slower epidemic spread compared to movements with random destinations. We demonstrate that routine movements slow down the epidemic spread compared to a standard metapopulation setting by up to 25%. We also show that spurious long distance movements present in the census data do not have a significant impact on the development of a potential epidemic in Great Britain.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.