ArticlePLoS computational biology2011
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza A: balancing conflicting policy objectives.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
62 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Pooled it
- Cost and cost-effectiveness of soil-transmitted helminth treatment programmes: systematic review and research needs.Parasites & vectors · 2015Pooled it
- The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- Case fatality risk of influenza A (H1N1pdm09): a systematic review.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2013Pooled it
- Minimizing Societal Cost of Epidemics: Optimal Catastrophe Insurance Compensation Allocation.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026Article
- Article
- Female Leadership during COVID-19: The Effectiveness of Diverse Approaches towards Mitigation Management during a Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Article
- Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence.Science advances · 2023Article
- Standardising policy and technology responses in the immediate aftermath of a pandemic: a comparative and conceptual framework.Health research policy and systems · 2023Article
- Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission and their effects on mobility: a cross-country analysis.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2022Article
- Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of economic behavior & organization · 2022Article
- Optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policy for Covid-19 epidemic via neuroevolution algorithm.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2022Article
- Testing and isolation to prevent overloaded healthcare facilities and reduce death rates in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome.Interface focus · 2021Review
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Logic Analysis of How the Emergency Management Legal System Used to Deal with Public Emerging Infectious Diseases under Balancing of Competing Interests-The Case of COVID-19.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- A simple criterion to design optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Mitigation of a severe influenza pandemic can be achieved using a range of interventions to reduce transmission. Interventions can reduce the impact of an outbreak and buy time until vaccines are developed, but they may have high social and economic costs. The non-linear effect on the epidemic dynamics means that suitable strategies crucially depend on the precise aim of the intervention. National pandemic influenza plans rarely contain clear statements of policy objectives or prioritization of potentially conflicting aims, such as minimizing mortality (depending on the severity of a pandemic) or peak prevalence or limiting the socio-economic burden of contact-reducing interventions. We use epidemiological models of influenza A to investigate how contact-reducing interventions and availability of antiviral drugs or pre-pandemic vaccines contribute to achieving particular policy objectives. Our analyses show that the ideal strategy depends on the aim of an intervention and that the achievement of one policy objective may preclude success with others, e.g., constraining peak demand for public health resources may lengthen the duration of the epidemic and hence its economic and social impact. Constraining total case numbers can be achieved by a range of strategies, whereas strategies which additionally constrain peak demand for services require a more sophisticated intervention. If, for example, there are multiple objectives which must be achieved prior to the availability of a pandemic vaccine (i.e., a time-limited intervention), our analysis shows that interventions should be implemented several weeks into the epidemic, not at the very start. This observation is shown to be robust across a range of constraints and for uncertainty in estimates of both R(0) and the timing of vaccine availability. These analyses highlight the need for more precise statements of policy objectives and their assumed consequences when planning and implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of an influenza pandemic.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.