ArticlePloS one2011
The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
Article in PloS one, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 72 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
72 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Pooled it
- Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Pooled it
- Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Modeling the amplification of epidemic spread by individuals exposed to misinformation on social media.Npj complexity · 2025Article
- Infectious diseases risk framing in Bulgarian media during early COVID-19 pandemic and the Ebola crisis.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Incorporating endogenous human behavior in models of COVID-19 transmission: A systematic scoping review.Dialogues in health · 2024Article
- Risk perception of healthcare workers in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.Heliyon · 2024Article
- A study on the evolution of tripartite collaborative prevention and control under public health emergencies using COVID-19 as an example.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature human behaviour · 2024Article
- Article
- Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for prevalence estimation and investigating clinical diagnostic test biases.Water research · 2023Article
- Article
- Intersection of Perceived COVID-19 Risk, Preparedness, and Preventive Health Behaviors: Latent Class Segmentation Analysis.Online journal of public health informatics · 2023Article
- Impact of voluntary testing on infectious disease epidemiology: A game theoretic approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- A game-theoretic model of lymphatic filariasis prevention.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Appropriately smoothing prevalence data to inform estimates of growth rate and reproduction number.Epidemics · 2022Article
- "Apples and Oranges": Examining Different Social Groups' Compliance With Government Health Instructions During the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of health policy and management · 2022Article
- Effects of human mobility and behavior on disease transmission in a COVID-19 mathematical model.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Optimistic Youth: Young Adults Predicted a Faster Decrease in Risk during COVID-19 Emergency State in Portugal.Portuguese journal of public health · 2022Article
12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL
findingsIn order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.