ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2011
Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A Systematic Review of Health Economic Evaluations and Budget Impact Analyses to Inform Healthcare Decision-Making in Central America.Applied health economics and health policy · 2023Pooled it
- Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review.Health economics · 2016Pooled it
- Systematic review of economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics.PloS one · 2012Pooled it
- Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States.NPJ vaccines · 2025Article
- DATA-driven shock impact of COVID-19 on the market financial system.Information processing & management · 2022Article
- Article
- An introduction to economic studies, health emergencies, and COVID-19.Journal of evidence-based medicine · 2020Article
- Can cost-effectiveness results be combined into a coherent league table? Case study from one high-income country.Population health metrics · 2019Article
- Antiviral treatment for outpatient use during an influenza pandemic: a decision tree model of outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2019Article
- Public preferences for interventions to prevent emerging infectious disease threats: a discrete choice experiment.BMJ open · 2018Article
- Malaria and Economic Evaluation Methods: Challenges and Opportunities.Applied health economics and health policy · 2017Article
- Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage.F1000Research · 2016Article
- Review of economic evaluations of mask and respirator use for protection against respiratory infection transmission.BMC infectious diseases · 2015Review
- Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Article
- Buy now, saved later? The critical impact of time-to-pandemic uncertainty on pandemic cost-effectiveness analyses.Health policy and planning · 2015Article
- Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.Emerging themes in epidemiology · 2013Article
- Economic and environmental impacts of harmful non-indigenous species in southeast Asia.PloS one · 2013Article
- Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty.PloS one · 2013Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.
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