Evidence map›Paper›PMID 21279504›Full record

ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2011

Fracture risk prediction using FRAX®: a 10-year follow-up survey of the Japanese Population-Based Osteoporosis (JPOS) Cohort Study.

J Tamaki, M Iki, E Kadowaki, Y Sato, E Kajita, S Kagamimori, Y Kagawa, H Yoneshima

Abstract readEvaluation Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Predictive value of BMD for hip and other fractures: a meta-analysis to update FRAX.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
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  6. Performance of predictive tools to identify individuals at risk of non-traumatic fracture: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2019
    Pooled it
  7. Performance of risk assessment instruments for predicting osteoporotic fracture risk: a systematic review.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2014
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  9. Claims-based frailty index and risk of hospitalisation for hip fracture among adults aged 60-74 years in Tokyo, Japan.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
    Article
  10. The development and validation of a prediction model for imminent vertebral osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

J TamakiDepartment of Public Health, Kinki University School of Medicine, 377-2, Oono-higasi, Osaka-sayama, Osaka, 589-8511, Japan.
M Iki
E Kadowaki
Y Sato
E Kajita
S Kagamimori
Y Kagawa
H Yoneshima

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

unlabelledWe evaluated the predictive ability of FRAX® in a cohort of 815 Japanese women. The observed 10-year fracture rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by FRAX®. The predictive ability of FRAX® without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) was similar to that with femoral neck BMD.

introductionWe evaluated the ability of the Japanese version of FRAX®, a World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, to predict the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture.

methodsSelf-reported major osteoporotic fracture (N = 43) and hip fracture (N = 4) events were ascertained in the 10-year follow-up survey of the Japanese Population-Based Osteoporosis Cohort Study. Participants were 815 women aged 40-74 years at the baseline survey. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis compared FRAX® with multiple logistic models based on age, body weight, and femoral neck BMD.

resultsThe number of observed major osteoporotic or hip fracture events did not differ significantly from the number of events predicted by the FRAX® model (with or without BMD). The area under the curve (AUC) value for FRAX® with BMD for predicting major osteoporotic fractures was similar to that of a logistic model with age, body weight, and BMD (0.69 vs. 0.71, respectively; p = 0.198); the AUC of FRAX® with BMD for predicting hip fractures was similar to that of a model based on age and BMD (0.88 vs. 0.89, respectively; p = 0.164). The AUCs of FRAX® without BMD for predicting major osteoporotic and hip fractures were similar to those with BMD (0.69 vs. 0.67, respectively; p = 0.121; 0.88 vs. 0.86, respectively; p = 0.445).

conclusionsThe Japanese version of FRAX® without BMD estimated the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in this population with few clinical risk factors as similar to that of FRAX® with BMD.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsAbsorptiometry, PhotonAdultAgedAsian PeopleBone DensityFemaleFemur NeckFollow-Up StudiesHip FracturesHumansLongitudinal StudiesMiddle AgedOsteoporotic FracturesRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

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Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.