ArticleAIDS and behavior2012
Concurrent partnerships, acute infection and HIV epidemic dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe.
Article in AIDS and behavior, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 82 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
82 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 124 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- Concurrent partnerships and HIV: an inconvenient truth.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2011Pooled it
- Sexual risk behaviours and population size estimation of men who have sex with men in Bhutan: a cross-sectional survey.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Review
- Novel Location-Based Survey Using Cognitive Interviews to Assess Geographic Networks and Hotspots of Sex and Drug Use: Implementation and Validation Study.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
- Impact of Survey Design on Estimation of Exponential-Family Random Graph Models from Egocentrically-Sampled Data.Social networks · 2022Article
- Partnership dynamics in mathematical models and implications for representation of sexually transmitted infections: a review.Annals of epidemiology · 2021Review
- HIV trends and disparities by gender and urban-rural residence among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa.Reproductive health · 2021Article
- Concurrency measures in the era of temporal network epidemiology: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
- Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men.Virus evolution · 2021Article
- Egocentric sexual networks of men who have sex with men in the United States: Results from the ARTnet study.Epidemics · 2020Article
- Article
- Network context matters: graph convolutional network model over social networks improves the detection of unknown HIV infections among young men who have sex with men.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2019Article
- Sexual Partner Types and Incident HIV Infection Among Rural South African Adolescent Girls and Young Women Enrolled in HPTN 068: A Latent Class Analysis.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2019Article
- Coital Frequency and Male Concurrent Partnerships During Pregnancy and Postpartum in Agbogbloshie, Ghana.AIDS and behavior · 2019Article
- Correlates of concurrent partnerships and patterns of condom use among men who have sex with men and transgender women in Peru.PloS one · 2019Article
- Statistical adjustment of network degree in respondent-driven sampling estimators: venue attendance as a proxy for network size among young MSM.Social networks · 2018Article
- Relational concurrency, stages of infection, and the evolution of HIV set point viral load.Virus evolution · 2018Article
- A Sexual Partnership Duration: Characterizing Sampling Conditions That Permit unbiased Estimation of Survivorship and Effect on It of Covariates.Research & reviews. Journal of statistics and mathematical sciences · 2018Article
- EpiModel: An R Package for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease over Networks.Journal of statistical software · 2018Article
22 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
This paper explores the roles of acute infection and concurrent partnerships in HIV transmission dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe using realistic representations of the partnership network and all published estimates of stage-specific infectivity. We use dynamic exponential random graph models to estimate partnership network parameters from an empirical study of sexual behavior and drive a stochastic simulation of HIV transmission through this dynamic network. Our simulated networks match observed frequencies and durations of short- and long-term partnerships, with concurrency patterns specific to gender and partnership type. Our findings suggest that, at current behavior levels, the epidemic cannot be sustained in this population without both concurrency and acute infection; removing either brings transmission below the threshold for persistence. With both present, we estimate 20-25% of transmissions stem from acute-stage infections, 30-50% from chronic-stage, and 30-45% from AIDS-stage. The impact of acute infection is strongly moderated by concurrency. Reducing this impact by reducing concurrency could potentially end the current HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.