ArticleDrug and alcohol dependence2011
Probability and predictors of transition from first use to dependence on nicotine, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine: results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).
Article in Drug and alcohol dependence, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 329 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
329 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- How adolescent cannabis use reshapes the developing brain - a systematic review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Pooled it
- Sociodemographic risk factors for the persistence of harmful alcohol use: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2025Pooled it
- Race, Ethnicity, and Other Cultural Background Factors in Trials of Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Depression: Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Pooled it
- Trans-ancestry epigenome-wide association meta-analysis of DNA methylation with lifetime cannabis use.Molecular psychiatry · 2024Pooled it
- Systematic review of structural and functional neuroimaging studies of cannabis use in adolescence and emerging adulthood: evidence from 90 studies and 9441 participants.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2022Pooled it
- A systematic review and meta-analysis of sex differences in cannabis use disorder amongst people with comorbid mental illness.The American journal of drug and alcohol abuse · 2021Pooled it
- Analgesic Effects of Cannabinoids for Chronic Non-cancer Pain: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis with Meta-Regression.Journal of neuroimmune pharmacology : the official journal of the Society on NeuroImmune Pharmacology · 2020Pooled it
- Sex- and Gender-Based Analysis in Cannabis Treatment Outcomes: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- Psilocybin in the Treatment of Cocaine Use Disorder: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2026Trial
- Anterior Cingulate Cortex Implants for Alcohol Addiction: A Feasibility Study.Neurotherapeutics : the journal of the American Society for Experimental NeuroTherapeutics · 2020Trial
- A developmental cascade model for early adolescent-onset substance use: the role of early childhood stress.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2019Trial
- Substance-related intrusive memories in cocaine use disorder are different from but associated with craving.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Article
- Adapting multi-criteria decision analysis of drug harms to reflect population-level health outcomes: An innovation in public health policy.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2026Article
- Initial Drug Sensitivity and Vulnerability to Substance Use Disorders: A Review of Individual Influences.Biology · 2026Review
- Factors associated with youth opposition or support for cannabis legalization in Lebanon.Journal of cannabis research · 2026Article
- Predicting Substance Use in Young Adults: The Role of Childhood Adversity.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
- Trends in the diagnostic prevalence of cannabis-related disorders and co-occurring psychiatric disorders in adolescents: analysis of German health insurance data from 2013 to 2022.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Drug harms in Canada: A multi-criteria decision analysis.Journal of psychopharmacology (Oxford, England) · 2026Article
- Sphingolipids in Emotional Well-Being.Journal of neurochemistry · 2026Review
- Dynamic Alterations in the Blood Transcriptome Characterize Drug Use Behavior and Co-Morbidities in Cocaine Use Disorder: A Preliminary Study.The European journal of neuroscience · 2026Article
269 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThis study aims to estimate general and racial-ethnic specific cumulative probability of developing dependence among nicotine, alcohol, cannabis or cocaine users, and to identify predictors of transition to substance dependence.
methodsAnalyses were done for the subsample of lifetime nicotine (n=15,918), alcohol (n=28,907), cannabis (n=7389) or cocaine (n=2259) users who participated in the first and second wave of the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Discrete-time survival analyses were implemented to estimate the cumulative probability of transitioning from use to dependence and to identify predictors of transition to dependence.
resultsThe cumulative probability estimate of transition to dependence was 67.5% for nicotine users, 22.7% for alcohol users, 20.9% for cocaine users, and 8.9% for cannabis users. Half of the cases of dependence on nicotine, alcohol, cannabis and cocaine were observed approximately 27, 13, 5 and 4 years after use onset, respectively. Significant racial-ethnic differences were observed in the probability of transition to dependence across the four substances. Several predictors of dependence were common across the four substances assessed.
conclusionsTransition from use to dependence was highest for nicotine users, followed by cocaine, alcohol and cannabis users. Transition to cannabis or cocaine dependence occurred faster than transition to nicotine or alcohol dependence. The existence of common predictors of transition dependence across substances suggests that shared mechanisms are involved. The increased risk of transition to dependence among individuals from minorities or those with psychiatric or dependence comorbidity highlights the importance of promoting outreach and treatment of these populations.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.