ArticlePLoS pathogens2010
Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants.
Article in PLoS pathogens, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 70 citations in OpenAlex.
- A binary trait model reveals the fitness effects of HIV-1 escape from T cell responses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Compartmental structure in the secondary lymphoid tissue can slow downJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- The genetic architecture of HIV-1 virulence.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- A binary trait model reveals the fitness effects of HIV-1 escape from T cell responses.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Joint host-pathogen genomic analysis identifies hepatitis B virus mutations associated with human NTCP and HLA class I variation.American journal of human genetics · 2024Article
- Human immunodeficiency virus dynamics in secondary lymphoid tissues and the evolution of cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants.Virus evolution · 2024Article
- Epidemic spreading under mutually independent intra- and inter-host pathogen evolution.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Evolution during primary HIV infection does not require adaptive immune selection.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- T-cell responses to sequentially emerging viral escape mutants shape long-term HIV-1 population dynamics.PLoS pathogens · 2020Article
- Mapping the drivers of within-host pathogen evolution using massive data sets.Nature communications · 2019Article
- Disease persistence on temporal contact networks accounting for heterogeneous infectious periods.Royal Society open science · 2019Article
- Genetic divergence of HIV-1 B subtype in Italy over the years 2003-2016 and impact on CTL escape prevalence.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Recombinant GII.P16/GII.4 Sydney 2012 Was the Dominant Norovirus Identified in Australia and New Zealand in 2017.Viruses · 2018Article
- Estimating the mutational fitness effects distribution during early HIV infection.Virus evolution · 2018Article
- Neutral Theory and Rapidly Evolving Viral Pathogens.Molecular biology and evolution · 2018Article
- APOBEC3G Regulation of the Evolutionary Race Between Adaptive Immunity and Viral Immune Escape Is Deeply Imprinted in the HIV Genome.Frontiers in immunology · 2018Article
- Interaction of the Host and Viral Genome and Their Influence on HIV Disease.Frontiers in genetics · 2018Review
- Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2017Article
- How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2017Article
- HIV-1 adaptation to NK cell-mediated immune pressure.PLoS pathogens · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.