ArticleArchives of internal medicine2010
Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans.
Article in Archives of internal medicine, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04657900 (Predicting Patient-level New Onset Atrial Fibrillation From Population-based Nationwide Electronic Health Records), which is not on this map. Cited by 71 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Predicting Patient-level New Onset Atrial Fibrillation From Population-based Nationwide Electronic Health Records: A Precision Medicine Investigation Using Artificial Intelligence
Who cites it
71 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 138 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prediction models for atrial fibrillation applicable in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2020Pooled it
- Are cardiovascular risk factors also associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation? A systematic review and field synopsis of 23 factors in 32 population-based cohorts of 20 million participants.Thrombosis and haemostasis · 2017Pooled it
- Body mass index, abdominal fatness, fat mass and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.European journal of epidemiology · 2017Pooled it
- Trial
- Risk Factors Influencing Outcomes of Atrial Fibrillation in ALLHAT.Journal of the National Medical Association · 2018Trial
- Darexaban (YM150), an oral direct factor Xa inhibitor, has no effect on the pharmacokinetics of digoxin.European journal of drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics · 2014Trial
- Orthostatic change in blood pressure and incidence of atrial fibrillation: results from a bi-ethnic population based study.PloS one · 2013Trial
- Enhanced Atrial Fibrillation Prediction in ESUS Patients with Hypergraph-based Pre-training.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2026Article
- 2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2025Review
- 2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2024Review
- Article
- Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2023Review
- Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure admitted to the ICU: a retrospective cohort study.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2022Article
- Article
- Population Attributable Risks of Potential Modifiable Factors for Atrial Fibrillation in China: A National Survey.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2022Article
- Left Atrial Strain to Predict Stroke in Patients With Acute Heart Failure and Sinus Rhythm.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2021Observational
- Development, validation, and proof-of-concept implementation of a two-year risk prediction model for undiagnosed atrial fibrillation using common electronic health data (UNAFIED).BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2021Article
- Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2021Article
- Article
- Artificial Intelligence-Electrocardiography to Predict Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Study.Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology · 2020Article
11 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
20 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWe sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.
methodsWe evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.
resultsWe found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0% (AGES) and 63.6% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.
conclusionsRisk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64% of risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.