ArticleSexually transmitted infections2011
Modelling the interactions between herpes simplex virus type 2 and HIV: implications for the HIV epidemic in southern India.
Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development.Vaccine · 2019Review
- Cost-effectiveness of tenofovir gel in urban South Africa: model projections of HIV impact and threshold product prices.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Article
- Modelling the impact of chlamydia screening on the transmission of HIV among men who have sex with men.BMC infectious diseases · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe role of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in the HIV epidemic and the potential impact of HSV-2 suppressive therapy have previously been explored only within the context of sub-Saharan Africa. In this analysis, modelling is used to estimate the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV transmission from clients to female sex workers (FSW) in a southern Indian setting and the maximum potential impact of 'perfect' HSV-2 suppressive therapy on HIV incidence.
methodsA dynamic HSV-2/HIV model was developed, parameterised and fitted to Mysore data. The model estimated the attributable fractions of HIV infections due to HSV-2. Multivariate sensitivity analyses and regression analyses were conducted.
resultsThe model suggests that 36% (95% CI 22% to 62%) of FSW HIV infections were due to HSV-2, mostly through HSV-2 asymptomatic shedding. Even if HSV-2 suppressive therapy could eliminate the effect of HSV-2 on HIV infectivity among all co-infected clients, only 15% (95% CI 3% to 41%) of HIV infections among FSW would have been averted. 36% (95% CI 18% to 61%) of HIV infections among HSV-2-infected FSW could have been averted if suppressive therapy reduced their risk of HIV acquisition to that of HSV-2-uninfected FSW.
conclusionsHSV-2 contributes substantially to HIV in this southern Indian context. However, even in the best case scenario, HSV-2 suppressive therapy is unlikely to reduce HIV transmission or acquisition by more than 50% (as aimed for in recent trials), because of the limited strength of the interaction effect between HSV-2 and HIV.
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Registered trials
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