ArticleHuman resources for health2010
Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model.
Article in Human resources for health, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
39 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline.Human resources for health · 2024Guideline
- A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- Utilization of registered nurses in primary care teams: A systematic review.International journal of nursing studies · 2017Pooled it
- How many specialists and residents in Clinical Psychology are required in the Spanish National Health System? A needs-based study.Human resources for health · 2025Article
- Self-sufficiency in the healthcare workforce: a system dynamics model of the domestic and foreign educated nursing and midwifery workforce in Ireland.Human resources for health · 2025Article
- Long-Range Forecasting for Emergency Care Systems in a Highly Dynamic Setting: A Singapore Case Study.Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open · 2025Article
- Article
- Mechanism of career resilience formation during the role transition of medical interns: a grounded theory study.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Slack Is Needed to Solve the Shortage of Nurses.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Fractured systems: a literature review of OR/MS methods applied to orthopaedic care settings and treatments.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2024Review
- Assessing needs-based supply of physicians: a criteria-led methodological review of international studies in high-resource settings.BMC health services research · 2023Review
- Methods and Tools Used to Estimate the Shortages of Medical Staff in European Countries-Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Tools for Supporting the MCH Workforce in Addressing Complex Challenges: A Scoping Review of System Dynamics Modeling in Maternal and Child Health.Maternal and child health journal · 2022Article
- Current and Future Needs for Human Resources for Ethiopia's National Health Information System: Survey and Forecasting Study.JMIR medical education · 2022Article
- Research on the optimization of financing scheme of long-term care insurance in China based on system dynamics simulation.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Research on Financing Mechanism of Long-Term Care Insurance in Xiamen, China: A System Dynamics Simulation.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling.Human resources for health · 2020Article
- Application of a system dynamics model in forecasting the supply and age distribution of physicians.Croatian medical journal · 2020Article
- How many and which physicians? A comparative study of the evolution of the supply of physicians and specialist training in Brazil and Spain.Human resources for health · 2020Article
- Workforce requirements for comprehensive ischaemic stroke care in a developing country: the case of Saudi Arabia.Human resources for health · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSpain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities.
methodsWe created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method.
resultsIn the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology.
conclusionsThe model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.
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Registered trials
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