ArticlePharmacoEconomics2010
Methods of model calibration: observations from a mathematical model of cervical cancer.
Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Calibration of individual-based models to epidemiological data: A systematic review.PLoS computational biology · 2020Pooled it
- Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community.PharmacoEconomics · 2016Pooled it
- A multi-method study evaluating the inference of compartmental model parameters from a generative agent-based model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Microsimulation Model Calibration with Approximate Bayesian Computation in R: A Tutorial.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Article
- Calibrating Natural History of Cancer Models in the Presence of Data Incompatibility: Problems and Solutions.PharmacoEconomics · 2022Article
- Biaxial Estimation of Biomechanical Constitutive Parameters of Passive Porcine Sclera Soft Tissue.Applied bionics and biomechanics · 2022Article
- How simulation modeling can support the public health response to the opioid crisis in North America: Setting priorities and assessing value.The International journal on drug policy · 2021Article
- Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020Article
- Combined estimation of disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy among treated individuals with HIV in the USA: a modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2019Article
- Developing a dynamic HIV transmission model for 6 U.S. cities: An evidence synthesis.PloS one · 2019Article
- Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.PloS one · 2018Article
- Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- An Overview of R in Health Decision Sciences.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2017Review
- Current recommendations on the estimation of transition probabilities in Markov cohort models for use in health care decision-making: a targeted literature review.ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2017Review
- Identifying best-fitting inputs in health-economic model calibration: a Pareto frontier approach.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
- Cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus-16/18 genotyping in cervical cancer screening.Applied health economics and health policy · 2015Article
- Performance of a mathematical model to forecast lives saved from HIV treatment expansion in resource-limited settings.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
- Incorporating calibrated model parameters into sensitivity analyses: deterministic and probabilistic approaches.PharmacoEconomics · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMathematical models are commonly used to predict future benefits of new therapies or interventions in the healthcare setting. The reliability of model results is greatly dependent on accuracy of model inputs but on occasion, data sources may not provide all the required inputs. Therefore, calibration of model inputs to epidemiological endpoints informed by existing data can be a useful tool to ensure credibility of the results.
objectiveTo compare different computational methods of calibrating a Markov model to US data.
methodsWe developed a Markov model that simulates the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and subsequent cervical disease in the US. Because the model consists of numerous transition probabilities that cannot be directly estimated from data, calibration to multiple disease endpoints was required to ensure its predictive validity. Goodness of fit was measured as the mean percentage deviation of model-predicted endpoints from target estimates. During the calibration process we used the manual, random and Nelder-Mead calibration methods.
resultsThe Nelder-Mead and manual calibration methods achieved the best fit, with mean deviations of 7% and 10%, respectively. Nelder-Mead accomplished this result with substantially less analyst time than the manual method, but required more intensive computing capability. The random search method achieved a mean deviation of 39%, which we considered unacceptable despite the ease of implementation of that method.
conclusionsThe Nelder-Mead and manual techniques may be preferable calibration methods based on both performance and efficiency, provided that sufficient resources are available.
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