ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2011
Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Species Accumulation Stabilizes the Synchronous Responses to the Environment of Vertebrate Communities Worldwide.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Divergent demographic responses of boreal-breeding ducks to growing season variability.Oecologia · 2026Article
- Phenology-informed decline risk of estuarine fishes and their prey suggests potential for future trophic mismatches.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2025Article
- Long-term population dynamics of an insect in a simple food web under a changing environment.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Antecedent Effect Models as an Exploratory Tool to Link Climate Drivers to Herbaceous Perennial Population Dynamics Data.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Role of weather and other factors in the dynamics of a low-density insect population.Ecology and evolution · 2022Article
- Life history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals.eLife · 2022Article
- Interactive influences of fluctuations of main food resources and climate change on long-term population decline of Tengmalm's owls in the boreal forest.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Phenotypic memory drives population growth and extinction risk in a noisy environment.Nature ecology & evolution · 2020Article
- Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Article
- Density-dependent and density-independent drivers of population change in Barton Springs salamanders.Ecology and evolution · 2018Article
- Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina).Die Naturwissenschaften · 2017Article
- Article
- Cross-taxa generalities in the relationship between population abundance and ambient temperatures.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2017Article
- Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model.Insects · 2017Article
- Effects of temperature and resource variation on insect population dynamics: the bordered plant bug as a case study.Functional ecology · 2016Article
- An updated perspective on the role of environmental autocorrelation in animal populations.Theoretical ecology · 2016Article
- Article
- Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.Ecology and evolution · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.