Evidence map›Paper›PMID 20837718›Full record

Trial reportCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2010

False-positive results in the randomized controlled trial of mammographic screening from age 40 ("Age" trial).

Louise E Johns, Sue M Moss, Age Trial Management Group

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Screening for breast cancer with mammography.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2013
    Pooled it
  3. Trial
  4. Trial
  5. Trial
  6. Subsequent mammography reduces recall and increases breast cancer detection: an audit of a screening program.Revista brasileira de ginecologia e obstetricia : revista da Federacao Brasileira das Sociedades de Ginecologia e Obstetricia · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Comparing CISNET Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Predictions to Observed Clinical Trial Results of Mammography Screening from Ages 40 to 49.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018
    Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Beyond the mammography debate: a moderate perspective.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2015
    Article
  17. Breast cancer screening: an evidence-based update.The Medical clinics of North America · 2015
    Review
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Louise E JohnsCancer Screening Evaluation Unit, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, Surrey, United Kingdom. louise.johns@icr.ac.uk
Sue M Moss
Age Trial Management Group

Funding

Cancer Research UK A3390Department of HealthMedical Research Council G9000793Medical Research Council G9000793(59464)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFalse-positive recall is a recognized disadvantage of mammographic breast screening, and the rate of such recalls may be higher in younger women, potentially limiting the value of screening below age 50.

methodsAttendance and screening outcome data for 53,884 women in the intervention arm of the U.K. Age trial were analyzed to report observed false-positive recall rates during 13 years of trial fieldwork. The Age trial was a randomized controlled trial of the effect of mammographic screening from age 40 on breast cancer mortality, conducted in 23 National Health Service screening centers between 1991 and 2004. Women randomized to the intervention arm were offered annual invitation to mammography from age 40 or 41 to age 48.

resultsOverall, 7,893 women (14.6% of women the intervention arm and 18.1% of women attending at least one routine screen) experienced one or more false-positive screen during the trial. The rates of false-positive mammography at first and subsequent routine screens were 4.9% and 3.2%, respectively. The cumulative false-positive rate over seven screens was 20.5%. Eighty-nine percent of women who had a false-positive recall at their previous screen attended their next invitation to routine screening.

conclusionsThe rates of false-positive recall in the Age trial were comparable with the national screening program; however, the positive predictive value of referral was lower. Experiencing a false-positive screen did not seem to lessen the likelihood of re-attendance in the trial. IMPACT: The question of greatly increased false-positive rates in this age group and of their compromising re-attendance is refuted by the findings of this study.

Indexed as

AdultBreast NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerFalse Positive ReactionsFemaleHumansMammographyMass Screening

Identifiers

PMID20837718
PMCPMC2978129

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.