ArticleBritish journal of cancer2010
Estimation and external validation of a new prognostic model for predicting recurrence-free survival for early breast cancer patients in the UK.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Communicating prognosis to women with early breast cancer - overview of prediction tools and the development and pilot testing of a decision aid.BMC health services research · 2019Pooled it
- Prognostic models for breast cancer: a systematic review.BMC cancer · 2019Pooled it
- Survival estimates stratified by the Nottingham Prognostic Index for early breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.Systematic reviews · 2018Pooled it
- Unremarked or Unperformed? Systematic Review on Reporting of Validation Efforts of Health Economic Decision Models in Seasonal Influenza and Early Breast Cancer.PharmacoEconomics · 2016Pooled it
- Trial
- TMPO-AS1-hsa-let-7b-5p-EZH2-RNA network predicts poor survival in basal-like breast cancer patients.Reports of practical oncology and radiotherapy : journal of Greatpoland Cancer Center in Poznan and Polish Society of Radiation Oncology · 2025Article
- A predictive model using MRI and clinicopathologic features for breast cancer recurrence in young women treated with upfront surgery.European radiology · 2024Article
- The Effects of Preoperative Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen, Cancer Antigen 15-3 and Cancer Antigen 125 on the Prognosis of Breast Cancer Patients With Different Molecular Subtypes.Journal of clinical medicine research · 2024Article
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- Development and validation of nomograms predicting survival in Chinese patients with triple negative breast cancer.BMC cancer · 2019Article
- Development and validation of a new predictive model for breast cancer survival in New Zealand and comparison to the Nottingham prognostic index.BMC cancer · 2018Article
- Prognostic value of routine laboratory variables in prediction of breast cancer recurrence.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Personalized Prognostic Prediction Models for Breast Cancer Recurrence and Survival Incorporating Multidimensional Data.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2017Article
- Are we able to predict survival in ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancer? A comparison of web-based models.British journal of cancer · 2015Article
- Individual risk profiling for breast cancer recurrence: towards tailored follow-up schemes.British journal of cancer · 2013Article
- Correlation ofCancer genomics & proteomicsArticle
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWe aimed to estimate and externally validate a new UK-specific prognostic model for predicting the long-term risk of a first recurrent event (local recurrence, metastatic recurrence, or second primary breast cancer) in women diagnosed with early breast cancer.
methodsUsing data on the prognostic characteristics and outcomes of 1844 women treated for early breast cancer at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, parametric regression-based survival analysis was used to estimate a prognostic model for recurrence-free survival. The model, which incorporated established prognostic factors, was externally validated using independent data. Its performance was compared with that of the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and Adjuvant! Online.
resultsThe number of positive axillary lymph nodes, tumour grade, tumour size and patient age were strong predictors of recurrence. Oestrogen receptor (ER) positivity was shown to afford a moderate protective effect. The model was able to separate patients into distinct prognostic groups, and predicted well at the patient level, mean Brier Accuracy Score=0.17 (s.e.=0.004) and overall C=0.745 (95% CI, 0.717-0.773). Its performance diminished only slightly when applied to a second independent data set. When compared with the NPI, the model was able to better discriminate between women with excellent and good prognoses, and it did not overestimate 10-year recurrence-free survival to the extent observed for Adjuvant! Online.
conclusionThe model estimated here predicts well at both the individual patient and group levels, and appears transportable to patients treated at other UK hospitals. Its parametric form permits long-term extrapolation giving it an advantage over other prognostic tools currently in use. A simple point scoring system and reference table allow 5-, 10-, and 15-year predictions from the model to be quickly and easily estimated. The model is also available to download as an interactive computer program.
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