ArticleEnvironmental science and pollution research international2011
Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models.
Article in Environmental science and pollution research international, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat.La Medicina del lavoro · 2018Pooled it
- Airport/seaport and autochthonous malaria in Europe from 1969 to 2022: A systematic review.New microbes and new infections · 2025Review
- Malaria in a metropolitan region of Southern Germany: past, present and future perspectives on a protozoan infection with the potential of re-appearance in Central Europe.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Terrestrial invertebrate hosts of human pathogens in urban ecosystems.Eco-Environment & Health · 2024Review
- Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2019Article
- Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.Malaria journal · 2017Review
- Devising a method towards development of early warning tool for detection of malaria outbreak.The Indian journal of medical research · 2017Article
- Temperature during pregnancy influences the fetal growth and birth size.Tropical medicine and health · 2017Article
- A review of national-level adaptation planning with regards to the risks posed by climate change on infectious diseases in 14 OECD nations.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2013Review
- Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeClimate warming can change the geographic distribution and intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproduction and development are accelerated. Lower Saxony (northwestern Germany) has been a malaria region until the 1950s, and the vector species are still present throughout Germany. This gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen was introduced again in Germany. MATERIALS AND
methodsThe spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions was investigated using the basic reproduction rate (R (0)) to model and geostatistically map areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria based on measured (1961-1990, 1991-2007) and predicted (1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080) monthly mean air temperature data.
resultsFrom the computations, maps were derived showing that during the period 1961-1990, the seasonal transmission gate ranges from 0 to 4 months and then expands up to 5 months in the period 1991-2007. For the projection of future trends, the regional climate models REMO and WettReg were used each with two different scenarios (A1B and B1). Both modelling approaches resulted in prolonged seasonal transmission gates in the future, enabling malaria transmissions up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080 (REMO, scenario A1B). DISCUSSION: The presented risk prognosis is based on the R (0) formula for the estimation of the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The presented model focuses on mean air temperatures; thus, other driving factors like the distribution of water bodies (breeding habitats) or population density are not integrated. Nevertheless, the modelling presented in this study can help identify areas at risk and initiate prevention. The described findings may also help in the investigation and assessment of related diseases caused by temperature-dependent vectors and pathogens, including those being dangerous for livestock as well, e.g. insect-borne bluetongue disease transmitted by culicoids.
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