ReviewPhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2010
Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.
Review in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 110 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
110 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Effect of environmental changes on vegetable and legume yields and nutritional quality.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Pooled it
- Spatially explicit temperature optima improve climate impact assessment of global crop productivity.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Machine learning-based temperature prediction across diverse ecosystems for the Boro Season in Bangladesh.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- SPAS-Dataset-BD: Dataset for smart precision agriculture system in Bangladesh.Data in brief · 2025Article
- Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- How Systemic Barriers Can Impact Health Inequities When Facing Climate Change Stressors: A Scoping Review of Global Differences.GeoHealth · 2025Review
- PlantCareNet: an advanced system to recognize plant diseases with dual-mode recommendations for prevention.Plant methods · 2025Article
- RGB Indices Can Be Used to Estimate NDVI, PRI, and Fv/Fm in Wheat and Pea Plants Under Soil Drought and Salinization.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the coupling of carbon productivity and high-quality economic development in China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Mechanical stimulation in plants: molecular insights, morphological adaptations, and agricultural applications in monocots.BMC biology · 2025Review
- Climate Change Impacts on and Response Strategies for Kiwifruit Production: A Comprehensive Review.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Climate change impacts onHeliyon · 2024Article
- RGB Imaging as a Tool for Remote Sensing of Characteristics of Terrestrial Plants: A Review.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Article
- Conservation Agriculture Impacts on Economic Profitability and Environmental Performance of Agroecosystems.Environmental management · 2024Article
- How model guided photosynthetic bioengineering can help to feed the world.Plant physiology · 2024Article
- Phenological responses of corn to agricultural mechanization: Evidence from a wheat-corn double cropping system in China.PloS one · 2024Article
- Applicability of metabolomics to improve sustainable grapevine production.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2024Review
- Inhibiting methanogenesis by targeting thermodynamics and enzymatic reactions in mixed cultures of rumen microbesFrontiers in microbiology · 2024Article
50 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.