ArticlePloS one2010
Modeling HIV vaccines in Brazil: assessing the impact of a future HIV vaccine on reducing new infections, mortality and number of people receiving ARV.
Article in PloS one, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evolution of HIV virulence in response to disease-modifying vaccines: A modeling study.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact.Health research policy and systems · 2017Article
- Complex immune correlates of protection in HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials.Immunological reviews · 2017Review
- Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package.PloS one · 2016Article
- The Potential Impact of Preventive HIV Vaccines in China: Results and Benefits of a Multi-Province Modeling Collaboration.Vaccines · 2015Article
- Relationship-level analysis of drug users' anticipated changes in risk behavior following HIV vaccination.AIDS care · 2015Article
- Drug users' willingness to encourage social, sexual, and drug network members to receive an HIV vaccine: a social network analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2014Article
- Will HIV vaccination reshape HIV risk behavior networks? A social network analysis of drug users' anticipated risk compensation.PloS one · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issuedVeloso, Valdiléa [corrected to Veloso, Valdiléa Gonçalves]
Authors and funding
9 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios. METHODS AND
findingsThe historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15-49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections.
conclusionsEven in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.