ArticleInternational journal of biometeorology2011
The reported incidence of campylobacteriosis modelled as a function of earlier temperatures and numbers of cases, Montreal, Canada, 1990-2006.
Article in International journal of biometeorology, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region--a systematic review.Global health action · 2014Pooled it
- Quantifying national burdens of foodborne disease-Four imperatives for global impact.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2019Article
- Brain diseases in changing climate.Environmental research · 2019Review
- Seasonality and the effects of weather on Campylobacter infections.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2017Review
- The effects of ambient temperature and heatwaves on daily Campylobacter cases in Adelaide, Australia, 1990-2012.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2014Article
- The importance of climatic factors and outliers in predicting regional monthly campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia, USA.International journal of biometeorology · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Previous studies have detected an effect of earlier temperatures on the incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans, but without adjustment for earlier numbers of cases of the disease. We estimated the effect of temperature on the number of cases notified by week in Montreal, Canada, from 1 January 1990 to 26 March 2006, simultaneously with the effect of the numbers of cases notified in the preceding weeks. The current campylobacteriosis count (week 0) was modelled by negative binomial regression, with earlier weekly average temperatures and earlier counts as predictors. Secular trends were accounted for by cubic spline functions and seasonal variations by sine-cosine functions. Indicator variables identified weeks with fewer than 5 working days. In the final statistical model, a 1°C increase in temperature above 10°C during any of weeks -1 to -6 was associated with a 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3% to 1.3%) increase in the current count. For each additional notified case during any of weeks -1 to -5 or -9 to -12, the increase in the current count was approximately 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2% to 1.0%). Thus, earlier temperatures and earlier counts have independent effects, that of temperatures being the larger one. The temperature effect is too small to require short term public health planning. However, in Montreal, an increase in average temperature of the order of 4.5°C, forecast by some for 2055, could produce a 23% increase in incidence, resulting in about 4,000 excess cases per year.
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Registered trials
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