ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2010
Prediction of gastrointestinal disease with over-the-counter diarrheal remedy sales records in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Drug sales data for gastrointestinal infections surveillance: a systematic review up to 2025.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Drug sales data analysis for outbreak detection of infectious diseases: a systematic literature review.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Pooled it
- Using Over-the-Counter Retail Medication Sales to Detect and Track Influenza-Like Illnesses Including Novel Diseases: Surveillance Modeling Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2026Article
- Gastroenteritis Forecasting Assessing the Use of Web and Electronic Health Record Data With a Linear and a Nonlinear Approach: Comparison Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Substandard and Falsified Medicines: Proposed Methods for Case Finding and Sentinel Surveillance.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
- Influenza detection and prediction algorithms: comparative accuracy trial in Östergötland county, Sweden, 2008-2012.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Tracking Cholera through Surveillance of Oral Rehydration Solution Sales at Pharmacies: Insights from Urban Bangladesh.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2015Article
- A Study of Failure Events in Drinking Water Systems As a Basis for Comparison and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Potable Reuse Schemes.Environmental health insights · 2015Article
- The spatiotemporal association of non-prescription retail sales with cases during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Great Britain.BMJ open · 2014Article
- Syndromic surveillance for local outbreak detection and awareness: evaluating outbreak signals of acute gastroenteritis in telephone triage, web-based queries and over-the-counter pharmacy sales.Epidemiology and infection · 2014Article
- Gastrointestinal disease outbreak detection using multiple data streams from electronic medical records.Foodborne pathogens and disease · 2012Article
- Adapting Syndromic Surveillance Baselines After Public Health Interventions.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWater utilities continue to be interested in implementing syndromic surveillance for the enhanced detection of waterborne disease outbreaks. The authors evaluated the ability of sales of over-the-counter diarrheal remedies available from the National Retail Data Monitor to predict endemic and epidemic gastrointestinal disease in the San Francisco Bay Area.
methodsTime series models were fit to weekly diarrheal remedy sales and diarrheal illness case counts. Cross-correlations between the pre-whitened residual series were calculated. Diarrheal remedy sales model residuals were regressed on the number of weekly outbreaks and outbreak-associated cases. Diarrheal remedy sales models were used to auto-forecast one week-ahead sales. The sensitivity and specificity of signals, generated by observed diarrheal remedy sales exceeding the upper 95% forecast confidence interval, in predicting weekly outbreaks were calculated.
resultsNo significant correlations were identified between weekly diarrheal remedy sales and diarrhea illness case counts, outbreak counts, or the number of outbreak-associated cases. Signals generated by forecasting with the diarrheal remedy sales model did not coincide with outbreak weeks more reliably than signals chosen randomly.
conclusionsThis work does not support the implementation of syndromic surveillance for gastrointestinal disease with data available though the National Retail Data Monitor.
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