Evidence map›Paper›PMID 20567599›Full record

ArticlePloS one2010

The re-emergence of H1N1 influenza virus in 1977: a cautionary tale for estimating divergence times using biologically unrealistic sampling dates.

Joel O Wertheim

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 44 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Observational
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.

Joel O WertheimDepartment of Pathology, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California, USA. jwertheim@ucsd.edu
University of California, San Diego · US

Funding

HOPE Training GrantT32AI007384 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Sara Gianella Weibel, Scott L Letendre · 1990 to 2026
$9.7M
Biomathematical analysis of viral dynamics/evolutionR01AI047745 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI RICHMAN, DOUGLAS D · 2001 to 2011
$3.2M
Biomathematical Analysis of Viral Dynamics and EvolutionR56AI047745 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI POND, SERGEI L KOSAKOVSKY · 2012 to 2012
$365k
BIOMATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF VIRAL DYNAMICS AND EVOLUTIONR21AI047745 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO · PI RICHMAN, DOUGLAS D · 2000 to 2000
$308k
NIAID NIH HHS AI07384NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI047745NIAID NIH HHS R21 AI047745NIAID NIH HHS R56 AI047745NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI007384
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In 1977, H1N1 influenza A virus reappeared after a 20-year absence. Genetic analysis indicated that this strain was missing decades of nucleotide sequence evolution, suggesting an accidental release of a frozen laboratory strain into the general population. Recently, this strain and its descendants were included in an analysis attempting to date the origin of pandemic influenza virus without accounting for the missing decades of evolution. Here, we investigated the effect of using viral isolates with biologically unrealistic sampling dates on estimates of divergence dates. Not accounting for missing sequence evolution produced biased results and increased the variance of date estimates of the most recent common ancestor of the re-emergent lineages and across the entire phylogeny. Reanalysis of the H1N1 sequences excluding isolates with unrealistic sampling dates indicates that the 1977 re-emergent lineage was circulating for approximately one year before detection, making it difficult to determine the geographic source of reintroduction. We suggest that a new method is needed to account for viral isolates with unrealistic sampling dates.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypePhylogeny

Identifiers

PMID20567599
PMCPMC2887442
OpenAlexW2031491717

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.