ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2011
A population-based risk algorithm for the development of diabetes: development and validation of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT).
Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05609266 (Validation of Non-invasive Risk Models for Prediction of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in a Swedish Population), which is not on this map. Cited by 63 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Validation of Non-invasive Risk Models for Prediction of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in a Swedish Population
Who cites it
63 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Lifestyle interventions in preventing new type 2 diabetes in Asian populations.Internal and emergency medicine · 2016Pooled it
- Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2011Pooled it
- Improving Short- and Long-Term Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction for Middle-Aged British Adults.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Relationship Between Palliative Care and Location of Death Among People With Opioid Use Disorder: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of palliative care · 2026Article
- A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population‑based risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: The Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Population Risk Tool (PregPoRT).Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Review
- Approaches to predict future type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease: A scoping review.PloS one · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a population-based risk algorithm for premature mortality in Canada: the Premature Mortality Population Risk Tool (PreMPoRT).BMJ public health · 2024Article
- The association between chemosensitivity and the 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes in male patients with obstructive sleep apnea.Sleep & breathing = Schlaf & Atmung · 2024Article
- Association between opioid use disorder and palliative care: a cohort study using linked health administrative data in Ontario, Canada.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2024Article
- External validation and application of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) for prediction of type 2 diabetes onset in the US population.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2024Article
- A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population-based avoidable hospitalization risk: Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Prediction Tool (AvHPoRT).Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2024Article
- Deep learning to estimate impaired glucose metabolism from Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the liver: An opportunistic population screening approach.PLOS digital health · 2024Article
- Predictive Modelling of Diabetes Risk in Population Groups Defined by Socioeconomic and Lifestyle Factors in Canada: A Cross-Sectional Study.International journal of public health · 2024Article
- Bridging ethics and epidemiology: Modelling ethical standards of health equity.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- Linking health survey data with health insurance data: methodology, challenges, opportunities and recommendations for public health research. An experience from the HISlink project in Belgium.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2023Article
- Metabolic fingerprinting on retinal pigment epithelium thickness for individualized risk stratification of type 2 diabetes mellitus.Nature communications · 2023Article
- A case-control study on predicting population risk of suicide using health administrative data: a research protocol.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Prediction in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study Cohort: A Machine Learning Approach.Journal of hepatocellular carcinoma · 2022Article
- Primer for artificial intelligence in primary care.Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien · 2021Article
- Article
3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundNational estimates of the upcoming diabetes epidemic are needed to understand the distribution of diabetes risk in the population and to inform health policy.
objectiveTo create and validate a population-based risk prediction tool for incident diabetes using commonly collected national survey data.
methodsWith the use of a cohort design that links baseline risk factors to a validated population-based diabetes registry, a model (Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT)) was developed to predict 9-year risk for diabetes. The probability of developing diabetes was modelled using sex-specific Weibull survival functions for people > 20 years of age without diabetes (N=19,861). The model was validated in two external cohorts in Ontario (N=26,465) and Manitoba (N=9899). Predictive accuracy and model performance were assessed by comparing observed diabetes rates with predicted estimates. Discrimination and calibration were measured using a C statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² statistic (χ²(H-L)).
resultsPredictive factors included were body mass index, age, ethnicity, hypertension, immigrant status, smoking, education status and heart disease. DPoRT showed good discrimination (C=0.77-0.80) and calibration (χ²(H-L) < 20) in both external validation cohorts.
conclusionsThis algorithm can be used to estimate diabetes incidence and quantify the effect of interventions using routinely collected survey data.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.