ArticleDiabetes care2010
Prediction of type 1 diabetes in the general population.
Article in Diabetes care, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 75 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
75 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of screening programmes for type 1 diabetes in youth: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2026Pooled it
- Established and emerging biomarkers for the prediction of type 1 diabetes: a systematic review.Translational research : the journal of laboratory and clinical medicine · 2014Pooled it
- Autoantibodies associated with primary biliary cholangitis are common among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus even in the absence of elevated liver enzymes.Clinical and experimental immunology · 2021Trial
- Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration in childhood and risk of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes: the TRIGR nested case-control ancillary study.Diabetologia · 2020Trial
- Pancreas Volume Declines During the First Year After Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes and Exhibits Altered Diffusion at Disease Onset.Diabetes care · 2019Trial
- Predictive Autoantibodies Before the Diagnosis of Type I Diabetes in Adults.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Article
- Economic evaluation of potential national childhood screening strategies for type 1 diabetes in Australia.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Are We Ready With Prevention for Type 1 Diabetes?Diabetes/metabolism research and reviews · 2025Review
- Review
- Dietary Components in the Pathogenesis and Prevention of Type 1 Diabetes in Children.Hormone research in paediatrics · 2025Review
- The INNODIA Type 1 Diabetes Natural History Study: a European cohort of newly diagnosed children, adolescents and adults.Diabetologia · 2024Article
- Diabetes Study of Children of Diverse Ethnicity and Race: Study design.Diabetes/metabolism research and reviews · 2024Observational
- Advances in risk predictive performance of pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes via the multiplex Antibody-Detection-by-Agglutination-PCR assay.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2024Article
- Secondary Prevention of Diabetes Type 1 with Oral Calcitriol and Analogs, the PRECAL Study.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Islet autoantibody screening in at-risk adolescents to predict type 1 diabetes until young adulthood: a prospective cohort study.The Lancet. Child & adolescent health · 2023Article
- The prevalence of diabetes and thyroid related autoantibodies in Sri Lankan children with type 1 diabetes and their unaffected siblings - The utility of a new screening assay.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2023Article
- The relationship between GAD65 autoantibody and the risk of T1DM onset.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2022Review
- Clinical Significance of Diabetes-Mellitus-Associated Antibodies in Rheumatoid Arthritis.Cells · 2022Article
- GAD65 autoantibodies and glucose tolerance in offspring born to women with and without type 1 diabetes (The EPICOM study).Endocrinology, diabetes & metabolism · 2022Article
15 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo evaluate the utility of GAD antibodies (GADAs) and islet antigen-2 antibodies (IA-2As) in prediction of type 1 diabetes over 27 years in the general population and to assess the 6-year rates of seroconversion. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsA total of 3,475 nondiabetic subjects aged 3-18 years were sampled in 1980, and 2,375 subjects (68.3%) were resampled in 1986. All subjects were observed for development of diabetes to the end of 2007. GADAs and IA-2As were analyzed in all samples obtained in 1980 and 1986.
resultsA total of 34 individuals (1.0%; 9 developed diabetes) initially had GADAs and 22 (0.6%; 9 developed diabetes) IA-2As. Seven subjects (0.2%) tested positive for both autoantibodies. The positive seroconversion rate over 6 years was 0.4% for GADAs and 0.2% for IA-2As, while the inverse seroconversion rates were 33 and 57%, respectively. Eighteen subjects (0.5%) developed type 1 diabetes after a median pre-diabetic period of 8.6 years (range 0.9-20.3). Initial positivity for GADAs and/or IA-2As had a sensitivity of 61% (95% CI 36-83) for type 1 diabetes. Combined positivity for GADAs and IA-2As had both a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI 59-100).
conclusionsOne-time screening for GADAs and IA-2As in the general childhood population in Finland would identify approximately 60% of those individuals who will develop type 1 diabetes over the next 27 years, and those subjects who have both autoantibodies carry an extremely high risk for diabetes. Both positive and inverse seroconversions do occur over time reflecting a dynamic process of beta-cell autoimmunity.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.