ReviewNature reviews. Neurology2010
Dementia risk prediction in the population: are screening models accurate?
Review in Nature reviews. Neurology, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 86 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
86 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Discriminative performance of externally validated dementia risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Healthy aging meta-analyses and scoping review of risk factors across Latin America reveal large heterogeneity and weak predictive models.Nature aging · 2024Pooled it
- Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) for the detection of dementia within a secondary care setting.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study.European journal of epidemiology · 2018Pooled it
- Longitudinal Effect of Stroke on Cognition: A Systematic Review.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2018Pooled it
- Predicting dementia from primary care records: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2018Pooled it
- Improving Prognostic Accuracy in Subjects at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Systematic Review of Predictive Models and Meta-analytical Sequential Testing Simulation.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2017Pooled it
- Current Developments in Dementia Risk Prediction Modelling: An Updated Systematic Review.PloS one · 2015Pooled it
- Cardiovascular disease risk models and longitudinal changes in cognition: a systematic review.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- Development and validation of the dialysis dementia risk score: A retrospective, population-based, nested case-control study.European journal of neurology · 2022Trial
- CogStrat: web-based tools for predicting incident cognitive impairment in cognitively normal older adults.Journal of neural transmission (Vienna, Austria : 1996) · 2026Article
- Linking the exposome to the brain-behaviour phenotype.Nature reviews. Neuroscience · 2026Review
- Cognitive status and associated risk factors in high-risk older adults of China: a population-based cross-sectional study.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- External validation of dementia risk prediction models in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort: a UK-based cohort study.NPJ dementia · 2026Article
- Predicting Dementia Risk: Progress, Pitfalls, and Priorities.International journal of public health · 2026Article
- Computational whole-body-exposome models for global precision brain health.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Individualized prediction of clinical progression to dementia using plasma biomarkers in non-demented elderly.Alzheimer's research & therapy · 2025Article
- XGBoost models based on non imaging features for the prediction of mild cognitive impairment in older adults.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A bayesian network model for neurocognitive disorders digital screening in Chinese population: development and validation study.BMC psychiatry · 2025Article
26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Early identification of individuals at risk of dementia will become crucial when effective preventative strategies for this condition are developed. Various dementia prediction models have been proposed, including clinic-based criteria for mild cognitive impairment, and more-broadly constructed algorithms, which synthesize information from known dementia risk factors, such as poor cognition and health. Knowledge of the predictive accuracy of such models will be important if they are to be used in daily clinical practice or to screen the entire older population (individuals aged >or=65 years). This article presents an overview of recent progress in the development of dementia prediction models for use in population screening. In total, 25 articles relating to dementia risk screening met our inclusion criteria for review. Our evaluation of the predictive accuracy of each model shows that most are poor at discriminating at-risk individuals from not-at-risk cases. The best models incorporate diverse sources of information across multiple risk factors. Typically, poor accuracy is associated with single-factor models, long follow-up intervals and the outcome measure of all-cause dementia. A parsimonious and cost-effective consensus model needs to be developed that accurately identifies individuals with a high risk of future dementia.
Indexed as
Identifiers
20498679What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.