Evidence map›Paper›PMID 20466793›Full record

SynthesisBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2010

An independent and external validation of QRISK2 cardiovascular disease risk score: a prospective open cohort study.

Gary S Collins, Douglas G Altman

Abstract readComparative StudyMeta-AnalysisValidation Study
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 118 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
118citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

118 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Identifying patients with suspected pancreatic cancer in primary care: derivation and validation of an algorithm.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2012
    Trial
  7. Identifying patients with suspected colorectal cancer in primary care: derivation and validation of an algorithm.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2012
    Trial
  8. Development of a prediction model for mortality in infants undergoing therapeutic hypothermia for neonatal encephalopathy.Journal of perinatology : official journal of the California Perinatal Association · 2026
    Article
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  10. Review
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  12. Is αERJ open research · 2025
    Article
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  20. Age at cardiovascular disease onset, dementia risk, and the role of lifestyle factors.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024
    Article

58 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Gary S CollinsCentre for Statistics in Medicine, Wolfson College Annexe, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6UD. gary.collins@csm.ox.ac.uk
Douglas G Altman

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo evaluate the performance of the QRISK2 score for predicting 10-year cardiovascular disease in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records and to compare it with the NICE version of the Framingham equation and QRISK1.

designProspective cohort study to validate a cardiovascular risk score.

setting365 practices from United Kingdom contributing to The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database.

participants1.58 million patients registered with a general practice between 1 January 1993 and 20 June 2008, aged 35-74 years (9.4 million person years) with 71 465 cardiovascular events.

main outcome measuresFirst diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, angina, coronary heart disease, stroke, and transient ischaemic stroke) recorded in general practice records.

resultsQRISK2 offered improved prediction of a patient's 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease over the NICE version of the Framingham equation. Discrimination and calibration statistics were better with QRISK2. QRISK2 explained 33% of the variation in men and 40% for women, compared with 29% and 34% respectively for the NICE Framingham and 32% and 38% respectively for QRISK1. The incidence rate of cardiovascular events (per 1000 person years) among men in the high risk group was 27.8 (95% CI 27.4 to 28.2) with QRISK2, 21.9 (21.6 to 22.2) with NICE Framingham, and 24.8 (22.8 to 26.9) with QRISK1. Similarly, the incidence rate of cardiovascular events (per 1000 person years) among women in the high risk group was 24.3 (23.8 to 24.9) with QRISK2, 20.6 (20.1 to 21.0) with NICE Framingham, and 21.8 (18.9 to 24.6) with QRISK1.

conclusionsQRISK2 is more accurate in identifying a high risk population for cardiovascular disease in the United Kingdom than the NICE version of the Framingham equation. Differences in performance between QRISK2 and QRISK1 were marginal.

Indexed as

AdultAgedCardiovascular DiseasesFamily PracticeFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSensitivity and SpecificityUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID20466793
PMCPMC2869403

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.