ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2010
Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 167 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
167 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 406 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association between temperature and malaria (1959-2019): a systematic review and meta-analysis.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Pooled it
- Quantitative modelling for dengue and Aedes mosquitoes in Africa: A systematic review of current approaches and future directions for Early Warning System development.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Assessment of malaria risk in Southeast Asia: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2023Pooled it
- Climatic drivers of the 2024 malaria outbreak in two neighbouring districts in northeastern India and its corridor: The indirect role of El Niño.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Hydrometeorological drivers of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance in an urbanized region of central Oklahoma.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of climate on cholera: a case study of Kolkata.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Assessing the role of interventions and climate on malaria mortality among children under five years of age: insights from two decades of data from the Health Demographic Surveillance System of Nouna, Burkina Faso.Journal of global health · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling and prediction of Anopheles mosquito abundance in Tanga and Unguja, Tanzania: climatic drivers and insights for malaria early warning and vector control strategies.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Modelling the association of rainfall and temperature with malaria incidence in Adamawa State, Nigeria.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Comparing three approaches to modelling the effects of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in different climatic regions.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Does climate change influence the spread of malaria in Benin? Insights from ecological niche modeling for surveillance efforts.International health · 2026Article
- Application of a Temporal Fusion Transformer and Long-Term Climate and Disease Data to Assess the Predictive Power and Understand the Drivers for Malaria and Dengue.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Trustworthy deep learning for malaria diagnosis using explainable artificial intelligence.Scientific reports · 2025Review
- Prediction of mosquito vector abundance for three species in the Anopheles gambiae complex.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- A Scoping Review of Mosquito Vector Range Shifts: Widespread Expansions and Evidence Gaps in Climate Attribution.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Application of remote sensing and geospatial technologies in predicting vector-borne disease outbreaks.Royal Society open science · 2025Review
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation and shifting malaria risks in the Amazon.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Climate Change Integration in Nursing Academic Curricula and Continuing Education: A Scoping Review.The Canadian journal of nursing research = Revue canadienne de recherche en sciences infirmieres · 2025Article
- Current and future temperature suitability for autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling and prediction of malaria cases in Tanzania mainland (2016-2023): unveiling associations with climate and intervention factors.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
107 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn recent years, the impact of climate change on human health has attracted considerable attention; the effects on malaria have been of particular interest because of its disease burden and its transmission sensitivity to environmental conditions.
objectivesWe investigated and illustrated the role that dynamic process-based mathematical models can play in providing strategic insights into the effects of climate change on malaria transmission.
methodsWe evaluated a relatively simple model that permitted valuable and novel insights into the simultaneous effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito population dynamics, malaria invasion, persistence and local seasonal extinction, and the impact of seasonality on transmission. We illustrated how large-scale climate simulations and infectious disease systems may be modeled and analyzed and how these methods may be applied to predicting changes in the basic reproduction number of malaria across Tanzania.
resultsWe found extinction to be more strongly dependent on rainfall than on temperature and identified a temperature window of around 32-33 degrees C where endemic transmission and the rate of spread in disease-free regions is optimized. This window was the same for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, but mosquito density played a stronger role in driving the rate of malaria spread than did the Plasmodium species. The results improved our understanding of how temperature shifts affect the global distribution of at-risk regions, as well as how rapidly malaria outbreaks take off within vulnerable populations.
conclusionsDisease emergence, extinction, and transmission all depend strongly on climate. Mathematical models offer powerful tools for understanding geographic shifts in incidence as climate changes. Nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate necessitates consideration of both changing climate trends and variability across time scales of interest.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.