ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2010
Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed.
- Rural-to-urban migrant worker mobility shaped measles epidemics in China.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Modeling the influences of climate conditions on measles transmission in China.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Descriptive Analysis of Measles Outbreak in Liberia, 2022.IJID regions · 2024Article
- Estimation of the relationship between meteorological factors and measles using spatiotemporal Bayesian model in Shandong Province, China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Potential Impacts of Mass Nutritional Supplementation on Measles Dynamics: A Simulation Study.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2022Article
- SPARSEMODr: Rapidly simulate spatially explicit and stochastic models of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.Biology methods & protocols · 2022Article
- Megacities as drivers of national outbreaks: The 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Tensor decomposition for infectious disease incidence data.Methods in ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Investigating persistent measles dynamics in Niger and associations with rainfall.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Structure, space and size: competing drivers of variation in urban and rural measles transmission.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Spatio-temporal dynamics of measles outbreaks in Cameroon.Annals of epidemiology · 2020Article
- Characteristics of measles epidemics in China (1951-2004) and implications for elimination: A case study of three key locations.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Malaria intensity in Colombia by regions and populations.PloS one · 2018Article
- Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2017Review
- Geospatial characteristics of measles transmission in China during 2005-2014.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Community unit performance: factors associated with childhood diarrhea and appropriate treatment in Nyanza Province, Kenya.BMC public health · 2017Article
- Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Measles burden in urban settings: characteristics of measles cases in Addis Ababa city administration, Ethiopia, 2004-2014.The Pan African medical journal · 2017Article
- Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage.Scientific reports · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Seasonally driven cycles of incidence have been consistently observed for a range of directly transmitted pathogens. Though frequently observed, the mechanism of seasonality for directly transmitted human pathogens is rarely well understood. Despite significant annual variation in magnitude, measles outbreaks in Niger consistently begin in the dry season and decline at the onset of the seasonal rains. We estimate the seasonal fluctuation in measles transmission rates for the 38 districts and urban centres of Niger, from 11 years of weekly incidence reports. We show that transmission rates are consistently in anti-phase to the rainfall patterns across the country. The strength of the seasonal forcing of transmission is not correlated with the latitudinal rainfall gradient, as would be expected if transmission rates were determined purely by environmental conditions. Rather, seasonal forcing is correlated with the population size, with larger seasonal fluctuation in more populous, urban areas. This pattern is consistent with seasonal variation in human density and contact rates due to agricultural cycles. The stronger seasonality in large cities drives deep inter-epidemic troughs and results in frequent local extinction of measles, which contrasts starkly to the conventional observation that large cities, by virtue of their size, act as reservoirs of measles.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.