Evidence map›Paper›PMID 20368646›Full record

ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2010

A model-based estimate of cumulative excess mortality in survivors of childhood cancer.

Jennifer M Yeh, Larissa Nekhlyudov, Sue J Goldie, Ann C Mertens, Lisa Diller

Registry-linked trialOpen access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02114697 (Accelerated Atherosclerosis in High Risk Population Groups), which is not on this map. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
14.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT02114697 phase4terminatedstarted 2014, after this paper: background citation

Accelerated Atherosclerosis in High Risk Population Groups: An Assessment by Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Ran2014Enrolled9Registered outcomes1Posted comparisons0ConditionsAtherosclerosisArmsLifestyle Modification, Statin therapy
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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 89 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Jennifer M YehHarvard School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, and Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. jyeh@hsph.harvard
Larissa Nekhlyudov
Sue J Goldie
Ann C Mertens
Lisa Diller
Harvard Pilgrim Health Care · US

Funding

Harvard Education Program in Cancer Prevention Control (R25T)R25CA057711 · NCI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI DAVISON, KIRSTEN · 1992 to 2018
$8.5M
Gastric Cancer Prevention: Evaluating U.S. Risk Factor Trends and New TechnologyK07CA143044 · NCI · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI YEH, JENNIFER M. · 2010 to 2014
$751k
NCI NIH HHS K07 CA143044NCI NIH HHS R25 CA057711NCI NIH HHS R25-CA057711
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough childhood cancer survival rates have dramatically increased, survivors face elevated risk for life-threatening late effects, including secondary cancer.

objectiveTo estimate the cumulative effect of disease- and treatment-related mortality risks on survivor life expectancy.

designState-transition model to simulate the lifetime clinical course of childhood cancer survivors.

settingChildhood Cancer Survivor Study. PATIENTS: Five-year survivors of childhood cancer. MEASUREMENTS: Probabilities of risk for death from the original cancer diagnosis, excess mortality from subsequent cancer and cardiac, pulmonary, external, and other complications, and background mortality (age-specific mortality rates for the general population) were estimated over the lifetime of survivors of childhood cancer.

resultsFor a cohort of 5-year survivors aged 15 years who received a diagnosis of cancer at age 10 years, the average lifetime probability was 0.10 for late-recurrence mortality; 0.15 for treatment-related subsequent cancer and death from cardiac, pulmonary, and external causes; and 0.05 for death from other excess risks. Life expectancy for the cohort of persons aged 15 years was 50.6 years, a loss of 10.4 years (17.1%) compared with the general population. Reduction in life expectancy varied by diagnosis, ranging from 4.0 years (6.0%) for kidney tumor survivors to more than 17.8 years (> or =28.0%) for brain and bone tumor survivors, and was sensitive to late-recurrence mortality risk and duration of excess mortality risk. LIMITATION: Estimates are based on data for survivors who received treatment 20 to 40 years ago; patients who received treatment more recently may have more favorable outcomes.

conclusionChildhood cancer survivors face considerable mortality during adulthood, with excess risks reducing life expectancy by as much as 28%. Monitoring the health of current survivors and carefully evaluating therapies with known late toxicities in patients with newly diagnosed cancer are needed.

Indexed as

Life ExpectancySurvivorsAdolescentCause of DeathChildComputer SimulationHumansNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalNeoplasmsProbabilityRisk FactorsSensitivity and Specificity

Identifiers

PMID20368646
PMCPMC3086591
OpenAlexW2030509385

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.