ArticleSexually transmitted diseases2010
Population level impact of an imperfect prophylactic vaccine for herpes simplex virus-2.
Article in Sexually transmitted diseases, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Projected public health benefits of a hypothetical HSV-1 vaccine in the United States: A mathematical modeling analysis.Science advances · 2026Article
- Mathematical modeling of the population-level impact of hypothetical herpes simplex virus type 2 curative therapy.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Vaccination as a strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis control: a global mathematical modeling analysis.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Impact of a potential Chlamydia vaccine in the USA: mathematical modelling analyses.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Effects of previous infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity against symptomatic Alpha, Beta, and Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections: an observational study.EBioMedicine · 2023Observational
- Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Review
- An mRNA vaccine to prevent genital herpes.Translational research : the journal of laboratory and clinical medicine · 2022Review
- Serum and Cervicovaginal Fluid Antibody Profiling in Herpes Simplex Virus-Seronegative Recipients of the HSV529 Vaccine.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Article
- Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses.Vaccines · 2020Article
- Dynamics of HSV-2 infection with a therapeutic vaccine.Heliyon · 2020Article
- Vaccines to prevent genital herpes.Translational research : the journal of laboratory and clinical medicine · 2020Review
- Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development.Vaccine · 2019Review
- Review
- Characterizing the transitioning epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in the USA: model-based predictions.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Characterizing herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 seroprevalence declines and epidemiological association in the United States.PloS one · 2019Article
- Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe continuation of developing Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) prophylactic vaccines requires parallel mathematical modeling to quantify the effect on the population of these vaccines.
methodsUsing mathematical modeling we derived 3 summary measures for the population effect of imperfect HSV-2 vaccines as a function of their efficacies in reducing susceptibility (VES), genital shedding (VEP), and infectivity during shedding (VEI). In addition, we studied the population level effect of vaccine intervention using representative vaccine efficacies.
resultsA vaccine with limited efficacy of reducing shedding frequency (VEP = 10%) and infectivity (VEI = 0%) would need to reduce susceptibility by 75% (VES = 75%) to substantially reduce the sustainability of HSV-2 infection in a population. No reduction in susceptibility would be required to reach this target in a vaccine that decreased shedding by 75% (VES = 0%, VEP = 75%, VEI = 0%). Mass vaccination using a vaccine with imperfect efficacies (VES = 30%, VEP = 75%, and VEI = 0%) in Kisumu, Kenya, in 2010 would decrease prevalence and incidence in 2020 by 7% and 30%, respectively. For lower prevalence settings, vaccination is predicted to have a lower effect on prevalence.
conclusionA vaccine with substantially high efficacy of reducing HSV-2 shedding frequency would have a desirable effect at the population level. The vaccine's short-term impact in a high prevalence setting in Africa would be a substantial decrease in incidence, whereas its immediate impact on prevalence would be small and would increase slowly over time.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.