ArticlePloS one2010
Calculation of disease dynamics in a population of households.
Article in PloS one, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 51 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiological Dynamics in Populations Structured by Neighbourhoods and Households.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Modeling the Effects of Vaccination and Treatment With Third-Generation Macrolides or Oxytetracyclines on Persistence and Impact of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities.Population health metrics · 2022Article
- A statistical theory of the strength of epidemics: an application to the Italian COVID-19 case.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2020Article
- Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control.Journal of theoretical biology · 2020Article
- Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
- Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Article
- Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
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- A three-scale network model for the early growth dynamics of 2014 west Africa ebola epidemic.PLoS currents · 2014Article
- Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2013Article
- Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic.PloS one · 2013Article
- Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I. Definition and calculation of R0.Mathematical biosciences · 2012Article
- Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces.Journal of mathematical biology · 2011Article
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- Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease.Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases · 2011Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.