ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2010
How fast could HIV change gene frequencies in the human population?
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Antiretroviral therapy blocks natural selection on protective and disease-susceptible HLA-B alleles in HIV-1 infection.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2016Article
- Modelling the spread of HIV immune escape mutants in a vaccinated population.PLoS computational biology · 2011Article
- Natural selection among Eurasians at genomic regions associated with HIV-1 control.BMC evolutionary biology · 2011Article
- Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants.PLoS pathogens · 2010Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Infectious diseases have the potential to act as strong forces for genetic selection on the populations they affect. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a prime candidate to impose such genetic selection owing to the vast number of people it infects and the varying susceptibility of different human leucocyte antigen (HLA) types to HIV disease progression. We have constructed a model of HIV infection that differentiates between these HLA types, and have used reported estimates of the number of people infected with HIV and the different rates of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) to provide a lower bound estimate on the length of time it would take for HIV to impose major genetic change in humans. We find that an HIV infection similar to that currently affecting sub-Saharan Africa could not yet have caused more than a 3 per cent decrease in the proportion of individuals who progress quickly to disease. Such an infection is unlikely to cause major genetic change (defined as a decrease in the proportion of quickly progressing individuals to under 50 per cent of their starting proportion) until 400 years have passed since HIV emergence. However, in very severely affected populations, there is a chance of observing such major genetic changes after another 50 years.
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Registered trials
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