ArticlePloS one2010
Development, calibration, and validation of a U.S. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma.
Article in PloS one, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 14 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- A war on many fronts: cross disciplinary approaches for novel cancer treatment strategies.Frontiers in genetics · 2024Review
- High rate of missed Barrett's esophagus when screening with forceps biopsies.Esophagus : official journal of the Japan Esophageal Society · 2023Article
- Utility and Cost-Effectiveness of a Nonendoscopic Approach to Barrett's Esophagus Surveillance After Endoscopic Therapy.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2022Article
- Wide Area Transepithelial Sampling with Computer-Assisted Analysis (WATSDigestive diseases and sciences · 2021Article
- Screening for Barrett's Esophagus in Patients with Cirrhosis Using WATSKansas journal of medicine · 2021Article
- A Decision Analysis of Follow-up and Treatment Algorithms for Nonsolid Pulmonary Nodules.Radiology · 2019Article
- Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions.BioMed research international · 2019Article
- Targeted screening of individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer: results of a simulation model.Radiology · 2015Article
- Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2014Article
- Statins and aspirin for chemoprevention in Barrett's esophagus: results of a cost-effectiveness analysis.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2014Article
- The cost effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus.Gastroenterology · 2012Article
- The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: estimates from a disease simulation model.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2011Article
- The prevalence of Barrett's esophagus in the US: estimates from a simulation model confirmed by SEER data.Diseases of the esophagus : official journal of the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus · 2010Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issuedRichards, Ethan B [corrected to Richards, Ethan M]
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data.
methodsThe model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program.
resultsModel outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model's fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965.
conclusionsThe model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.