ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2010
Correcting the actual reproduction number: a simple method to estimate R(0) from early epidemic growth data.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Reliability of Early Estimates of the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Analysis and simulation of a stochastic reaction-diffusion model for HBV infection under antiviral treatment.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the time-varying reproduction number: statistical methods.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Estimation of the Reproductive Number Trend of the Novel Coronavirus "COVID-19" in Southern Iran from July to November 2020.Iranian journal of medical sciences · 2022Article
- On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A multi-method approach to modeling COVID-19 disease dynamics in the United States.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Infection kinetics of Covid-19 and containment strategy.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Exploring COVID-19 Daily Records of Diagnosed Cases and Fatalities Based on Simple Nonparametric Methods.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- Article
- Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic with Hierarchical Quarantine and Time Delay.Dynamic games and applications · 2021Article
- Estimation of basic reproduction number for COVID-19 and the reasons for its differences.International journal of clinical practice · 2020Article
- The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Article
- Spatiotemporal multi-disease transmission dynamic measure for emerging diseases: an application to dengue and zika integrated surveillance in Thailand.BMC medical research methodology · 2019Article
- Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (REmerging infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Modelling the impact of correlations between condom use and sexual contact pattern on the dynamics of sexually transmitted infections.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2018Article
- Frequent implementation of interventions may increase HIV infections among MSM in China.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Article
- A comparative analysis of three different methods for the estimation of the basic reproduction number of dengue.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2016Article
- Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
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1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The basic reproduction number, R(0), a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R(0) without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R(0) values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R(0) using a spreadsheet.
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