Fasting plasma glucose levels within the normoglycemic range in childhood as a predictor of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in adulthood: the Bogalusa Heart Study.

objectivesTo determine whether childhood elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels within the normoglycemic range predict diabetes in adulthood.

designRetrospective cohort study.

settingCommunity of Bogalusa, Louisiana.

participantsNormoglycemic (n = 1723), prediabetic (n = 79), and type 2 diabetic (n = 47) adults aged 19 to 44 years followed up serially for an average of 21 years since childhood. Main Exposures Association of elevated baseline childhood FPG levels with the prediabetic or diabetic status at the last survey in adulthood.

main outcome measuresReceiver operating characteristic analysis and longitudinal logistic regression odds ratios.

resultsThe prevalent rate of adult diabetes status by quartiles of baseline childhood FPG levels showed an adverse trend for prediabetes (P < .001) and diabetes (P = .03), with an apparent threshold occurring at or above the 50th percentile (86 mg/dL). Regarding the predictive value of the above threshold, the area under the receiver operating curve analysis yielded a C value of 0.855 for prediabetes and 0.789 for diabetes models, with sensitivity and specificity, respectively, of 76.9% and 85.2% for prediabetes and 75.0% and 76.0% for diabetes. In a multivariate analysis that included anthropometric, hemodynamic, and metabolic variables from childhood to adulthood and baseline childhood FPG status (> or = vs < 50th percentile), individuals with elevated childhood FPG levels were 3.40 times more likely to develop prediabetes (P < .001) and 2.06 times more likely to develop diabetes (P = .05) as adults.

conclusionThe fact that elevated FPG level in childhood, even within the normoglycemic range, is a predictor of type 2 diabetes in younger adulthood has implications for health care policy.