Evidence map›Paper›PMID 20029670›Full record

ArticlePLoS currents2009

Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic.

Duygu Balcan, Vittoria Colizza, Andrew C Singer, Christos Chouaid, Hao Hu, Bruno Gonçalves, Paolo Bajardi, Chiara Poletto, Jose J Ramasco, Nicola Perra and 5 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS currents, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. Modeling for Estimating Influenza Patients from ILI Surveillance Data in Korea.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2011
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 9 institutions in 6 countries.

Duygu BalcanIndiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Vittoria Colizza
Andrew C Singer
Christos Chouaid
Hao Hu
Bruno Gonçalves
Paolo Bajardi
Chiara Poletto
Jose J Ramasco
Nicola Perra
Michele Tizzoni
Daniela Paolotti
Wouter Van den Broeck
Alainjacques Valleron
Alessandro Vespignani
Indiana University Bloomington · USInstitute for Scientific Interchange · ITCentre de Physique Théorique · FRCentre Hospitalier Universitaire Henri-Mondor · FRClinique de Genolier · CHDepartment of Public Health · USSorbonne Université · FRUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology · GBWisdomTools (United States) · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massive influx of additional patients. Given the limited capacity of health care providers and hospitals and the limited supplies of antibiotics, it is important to predict the potential demand on critical care to assist planning for the management of resources and plan for additional stockpiling. We develop a disease model that considers the development of influenza-associated complications and incorporate it into a global epidemic model to assess the expected surge in critical care demands due to viral and bacterial pneumonia. Based on the most recent estimates of complication rates, we predict the expected peak number of intensive care unit beds and the stockpile of antibiotic courses needed for the current pandemic wave. The effects of dynamic vaccination campaigns, and of variations of the relative proportion of bacterial co-infection in complications and different length of staying in the intensive care unit are explored.

Identifiers

PMID20029670
PMCPMC2792767
OpenAlexW2013509604

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.