Evidence map›Paper›PMID 20003249›Full record

SynthesisBMC medicine2009

Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies.

Vernon J Lee, David C Lye, Annelies Wilder-Smith

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC medicine, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
49citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

49 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Article
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  11. Reacting to outbreaks at neighboring localities.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021
    Article
  12. Public support for air travel restrictions to address COVID-19 or climate change.Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment · 2021
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  20. Adoption of personal protective measures by ordinary citizens during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Vernon J LeeCenter for Health Services Research, National University of Singapore, Singapore. vernonljm@hotmail.com
David C Lye
Annelies Wilder-Smith

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIndividual strategies in pandemic preparedness plans may not reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic.

methodsWe searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical.

resultsNineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza.

conclusionCombination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction). Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalAnti-Bacterial AgentsAntiviral AgentsDisease OutbreaksHumansHygieneInfluenza, HumanMass VaccinationQuarantineAnti-Bacterial AgentsAntiviral Agents

Identifiers

PMID20003249
PMCPMC2797001

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.