Evidence map›Paper›PMID 19965531›Full record

ArticleClinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN2010

Predicting six-month mortality for patients who are on maintenance hemodialysis.

Lewis M Cohen, Robin Ruthazer, Alvin H Moss, Michael J Germain

Abstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 137 papers, 14 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
137citing papers in PubMed, 14 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

137 citing papers in PubMed, 14 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  9. The "surprise question" for predicting death in seriously ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2017
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77 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Lewis M CohenBaystate Medical Center, Chestnut Street, Springfield, MA 01199, USA.
Robin Ruthazer
Alvin H Moss
Michael J Germain

Funding

Hospice Intervention for Older Adults With ESRDR21DK076563 · NIDDK · BAYSTATE MEDICAL CENTER, INC. · PI COHEN, LEWIS MITCHELL · 2006 to 2007
$450k
NIDDK NIH HHS 5 R21 DK076563-02NIDDK NIH HHS R21 DK076563
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesPrognostic information is rarely conveyed by nephrologists because of clinical uncertainty about accuracy. The objective of this study was to develop an integrated prognostic model of 6-mo survival for patients who receive hemodialysis (HD). DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: A short-term prognostic model was developed using prospective data from a derivation cohort of 512 patients who were receiving HD at five dialysis clinics. Patient charts were reviewed for actuarial predictors (e.g., Charlson Comorbidity), and nephrologists answered the "surprise" question (SQ), "Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next 6 mo?" Survival was monitored for up to 24 mo. The prognostic model was tested with a validation cohort of 514 patients from eight clinics.

resultsIn a Cox multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort, five variables were independently associated with early mortality: Older age (hazard ratio [HR] for a 10-yr increase 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17 to 1.57), dementia (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.11 to 4.48), peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.24 to 2.84), decreased albumin (HR for a 1-U increase 0.27; 95% CI 0.15 to 0.50), and SQ (HR 2.71; 95% CI 1.76 to 4.17). Area under the curve for the resulting prognostic model predictions of 6-mo mortality were 0.87 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.92) in the derivation cohort and 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88) in the validation cohort.

conclusionsAn integrated 6-mo prognostic tool was developed and validated for the HD population. The instrument may be of value for researchers and clinicians to improve end-of-life care by providing more accurate prognostic information.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProspective StudiesRenal DialysisSurvival RateTime Factors

Identifiers

PMID19965531
PMCPMC2801643

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.