ArticleBMC medicine2009
Post-exposure prophylaxis during pandemic outbreaks.
Article in BMC medicine, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis coupled with contact tracing in reducing the transmission of the influenza A (H1N1-2009): a systematic review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2013Pooled it
- Traveling Waves and Estimation of Minimal Wave Speed for a Diffusive Influenza Model with Multiple Strains.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2017Review
- Strategies for Early Vaccination During Novel Influenza Outbreaks.Scientific reports · 2015Article
- Review
- Article
- Estimated impact of aggressive empirical antiviral treatment in containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 in an isolated First Nations community.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2013Article
- Optimality of a time-dependent treatment profile during an epidemic.Journal of biological dynamics · 2013Article
- Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty.PloS one · 2013Article
- Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything.BMC public health · 2011Article
- Pertussis resurgence in Toronto, Canada: a population-based study including test-incidence feedback modeling.BMC public health · 2011Article
- Influenza pandemic waves under various mitigation strategies with 2009 H1N1 as a case study.PloS one · 2010Article
- Strategies for the use of oseltamivir and zanamivir during pandemic outbreaks.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2010Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWith the rise of the second pandemic wave of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in the current season in the Northern Hemisphere, pandemic plans are being carefully re-evaluated, particularly for the strategic use of antiviral drugs. The recent emergence of oseltamivir-resistant in treated H1N1 patients has raised concerns about the prudent use of neuraminidase inhibitors for both treatment of ill individuals and post-exposure prophylaxis of close contacts.
methodsWe extended an established population dynamical model of pandemic influenza with treatment to include post-exposure prophylaxis of close contacts. Using parameter estimates published in the literature, we simulated the model to evaluate the combined effect of treatment and prophylaxis in minimizing morbidity and mortality of pandemic infections in the context of transmissible drug resistance.
resultsWe demonstrated that, when transmissible resistant strains are present, post-exposure prophylaxis can promote the spread of resistance, especially when combined with aggressive treatment. For a given treatment level, there is an optimal coverage of prophylaxis that minimizes the total number of infections (final size) and this coverage decreases as a higher proportion of infected individuals are treated. We found that, when treatment is maintained at intermediate levels, limited post-exposure prophylaxis provides an optimal strategy for reducing the final size of the pandemic while minimizing the total number of deaths. We tested our results by performing a sensitivity analysis over a range of key model parameters and observed that the incidence of infection depends strongly on the transmission fitness of resistant strains.
conclusionOur findings suggest that, in the presence of transmissible drug resistance, strategies that prioritize the treatment of only ill individuals, rather than the prophylaxis of those suspected of being exposed, are most effective in reducing the morbidity and mortality of the pandemic. The impact of post-exposure prophylaxis depends critically on the treatment level and the transmissibility of resistant strains and, therefore, enhanced surveillance and clinical monitoring for resistant mutants constitutes a key component of any comprehensive plan for antiviral drug use during an influenza pandemic.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.