Evidence map›Paper›PMID 19952759›Full record

SynthesisEuropean journal of cardiovascular prevention and rehabilitation : official journal of the European Society of Cardiology, Working Groups on Epidemiology & Prevention and Cardiac Rehabilitation and Exercise Physiology2010

What is the predictive value of established risk factors for total and cardiovascular disease mortality when measured before middle age? Pooled analyses of two prospective cohort studies from Scotland.

Linsay Gray, Carole L Hart, George Davey Smith, G David Batty

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in European journal of cardiovascular prevention and rehabilitation : official journal of the European Society of Cardiology, Working Groups on Epidemiology & Prevention and Cardiac Rehabilitation and Exercise Physiology, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Alcohol consumption as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European journal of cardiovascular prevention and rehabilitation : official journal of the European Society of Cardiology, Working Groups on Epidemiology & Prevention and Cardiac Rehabilitation and Exercise Physiology · 2010
    Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Forced vital capacity predicts long-term survival for curative-resected NSCLC.Medical oncology (Northwood, London, England) · 2014
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Linsay GrayMRC Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, UK. l.gray@sphsu.mrc.ac.uk
Carole L Hart
George Davey Smith
G David Batty

Funding

Chief Scientist Office SPHSU2Medical Research Council G0600705Medical Research Council MC_U130059821Medical Research Council MC_U130059823Medical Research Council MC_UP_A540_1021Wellcome Trust 081021Wellcome Trust U.1300.00.006.00012.01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsTo examine the association of physiological, behavioural and social characteristics in pre-middle age with future total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS AND

resultsRisk factor data on 1503 individuals aged 16-35 years at baseline were collected in two prospective cohort studies using standard protocols. Their association with total and CVD mortality ascertained during 40 years of follow-up was summarized using Cox proportional hazards regression. A median follow-up of 39.6 years gave rise to 255 deaths (103 from CVD). In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, impaired lung function [one standard deviation increases in forced expiratory volume in 1 s: hazards ratio 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.55, 0.86; and in forced vital capacity: 0.76; 0.59, 0.98], current cigarette smoking (4.16; 2.22, 7.80) and higher alcohol consumption (one standard deviation increase in standard units consumed: 1.20; 1.02, 1.41) were associated with CVD. In fully adjusted analyses associations generally held. For total mortality, these factors and obesity and socioeconomic disadvantage were predictive.

conclusionA range of risk factors measured before middle age were related to risk of total and CVD mortality up to four decades later, indicating that public health interventions should be implemented earlier in the life course than is currently the case.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAge FactorsAlcohol DrinkingCardiovascular DiseasesCause of DeathFemaleForced Expiratory VolumeHealth PromotionHumansLungMaleObesityPredictive Value of TestsPreventive Health ServicesProportional Hazards Models

Identifiers

PMID19952759
PMCPMC2939979

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.