ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2010
Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed.
- Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A generalized ODE susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model with potentially periodic behavior.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Dissecting recurrent waves of pertussis across the boroughs of London.PLoS computational biology · 2022Review
- Transmission models indicate Ebola virus persistence in non-human primate populations is unlikely.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times.PloS one · 2021Article
- Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Disease control across urban-rural gradients.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Beyond the SNP Threshold: Identifying Outbreak Clusters Using Inferred Transmissions.Molecular biology and evolution · 2019Article
- Comparative epidemiology of poliovirus transmission.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2017Article
- Detecting signals of chronic shedding to explain pathogen persistence: Leptospira interrogans in California sea lions.The Journal of animal ecology · 2017Article
- High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
- Effects of memory on the shapes of simple outbreak trees.Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Article
- A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2015Article
- Article
- Conserved patterns of incomplete reporting in pre-vaccine era childhood diseases.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2014Article
- The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2014Article
- Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection.Trends in ecology & evolution · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Measles epidemics in human populations exhibit what is perhaps the best empirically characterized, and certainly the most studied, stochastic persistence threshold in population biology. A critical community size (CCS) of around 250,000-500,000 separates populations where measles is predominantly persistent from smaller communities where there are frequent extinctions of measles between major epidemics. The fundamental mechanisms contributing to this pattern of persistence, which are long-lasting immunity to re-infection, recruitment of susceptibles, seasonality in transmission, age dependence of transmission and the spatial coupling between communities, have all been quantified and, to a greater or lesser level of success, captured by theoretical models. Despite these successes there has not been a consensus over whether simple models can successfully predict the value of the CCS, or indeed which mechanisms determine the persistence of measles over a broader range of population sizes. Specifically, the level of the CCS has been thought to be particularly sensitive to the detailed stochastic dynamics generated by the waiting time distribution (WTD) in the infectious and latent periods. We show that the relative patterns of persistence between models with different WTDs are highly sensitive to the criterion of comparison-in particular, the statistical measure of persistence that is employed. To this end, we introduce two new statistical measures of persistence-fade-outs post epidemic and fade-outs post invasion. Contrary to previous reports, we demonstrate that, no matter the choice of persistence measure, appropriately parametrized models of measles demonstrate similar predictions for the level of the CCS.
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