ArticleBMC infectious diseases2009
Small islands and pandemic influenza: potential benefits and limitations of travel volume reduction as a border control measure.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2014Pooled it
- A proactive Covid-19 response associated with better health and economic outcomes for OECD High-Income Island Countries.SSM - population health · 2025Article
- Article
- Early Detection of COVID-19 Waves From Cases in a Neighboring Country With an Open Border.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Travel restrictions during pandemics: A useful strategy?Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) · 2020Article
- Inflow restrictions can prevent epidemics when contact tracing efforts are effective but have limited capacity.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- An agent-based model to evaluate the COVID-19 transmission risks in facilities.Computers in biology and medicine · 2020Article
- Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings-International Travel-Related Measures.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- The extensive networks of frequent population mobility in the Samoan Islands and their implications for infectious disease transmission.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention.PloS one · 2017Article
- The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2011Article
- The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response.Experimental biology and medicine (Maywood, N.J.) · 2011Review
- Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model.BMC infectious diseases · 2011Article
- Influenza in travelers: epidemiology, risk, prevention, and control issues.Current infectious disease reports · 2010Article
- Air travel and COVID-19 prevention in the pandemic and peri-pandemic period: A narrative review.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseReview
- Reprint of: Air travel and COVID-19 prevention in the pandemic and peri-pandemic period: A narrative review.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseReview
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSome island nations have explicit components of their influenza pandemic plans for providing travel warnings and restricting incoming travellers. But the potential value of such restrictions has not been quantified.
methodsWe developed a probabilistic model and used parameters from a published model (i.e., InfluSim) and travel data from Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs).
resultsThe results indicate that of the 17 PICTs with travel data, only six would be likely to escape a major pandemic with a viral strain of relatively low contagiousness (i.e., for R0 = 1.5) even when imposing very tight travel volume reductions of 99% throughout the course of the pandemic. For a more contagious viral strain (R0 = 2.25) only five PICTs would have a probability of over 50% to escape. The total number of travellers during the pandemic must not exceed 115 (for R0 = 3.0) or 380 (for R0 = 1.5) if a PICT aims to keep the probability of pandemic arrival below 50%.
conclusionThese results suggest that relatively few island nations could successfully rely on intensive travel volume restrictions alone to avoid the arrival of pandemic influenza (or subsequent waves). Therefore most island nations may need to plan for multiple additional interventions (e.g., screening and quarantine) to raise the probability of remaining pandemic free or achieving substantial delay in pandemic arrival.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.