ArticleBMC veterinary research2009
Classical sheep scrapie in Great Britain: spatial analysis and identification of environmental and farm-related risk factors.
Article in BMC veterinary research, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting Risk Areas of Classical Scrapie in China Based on Environmental Suitability.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in South Africa (2005-2016).Tropical animal health and production · 2021Article
- Will there be any more classical scrapie cases in sheep in Great Britain? A modelling study to predict future cases.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Clay content and pH: soil characteristic associations with the persistent presence of chronic wasting disease in northern Illinois.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Molecular epidemiology and population structure of the honey bee brood pathogen Melissococcus plutonius.The ISME journal · 2014Article
- A relevant long-term impact of the circulation of a potentially contaminated vaccine on the distribution of scrapie in Italy. Results from a retrospective cohort study.Veterinary research · 2012Article
- Towards a unifying, systems biology understanding of large-scale cellular death and destruction caused by poorly liganded iron: Parkinson's, Huntington's, Alzheimer's, prions, bactericides, chemical toxicology and others as examples.Archives of toxicology · 2010Review
- Temporal and spatial dynamics of Cryptosporidium parvum infection on dairy farms in the New York City Watershed: a cluster analysis based on crude and Bayesian risk estimates.International journal of health geographics · 2010Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPrevious studies suggest that the spatial distribution of classical sheep scrapie in Great Britain is uneven and that certain flock characteristics may be associated with occurrence of the disease. However, the existence of areas of high and low disease-risk may also result from differences in the spatial distribution of environmental characteristics. In this study we explored the spatial pattern of classical scrapie in Great Britain between 2002 and 2005 and investigated the association between disease occurrence and various environmental and farm-related risk factors.
resultsExploratory spatial analysis: South Wales was found to have a higher density of scrapie-positive farms than the rest of Great Britain. In addition, a small cluster of high-risk farms was identified in the center of this region in which clustering of scrapie-positive farms occurred up to a distance of approximately 40 km. SPATIAL MODELLING: A mixed-effects regression model identified flock-size and soil drainage to be significantly associated with the occurrence of scrapie in England and Wales (area under the curve (AUC) 0.71 +/- 0.01, 95% CI 0.68 - 0.74). The predictive risk map based on the estimated association between these factors and disease occurrence showed most of Wales to be at risk of being confirmed positive for scrapie with areas of highest risk in central and south Wales. In England, areas with the highest risk occurred mainly in the north and the midlands.
conclusionThe observed distribution of scrapie in Great Britain exhibited a definite spatial pattern with south Wales identified as an area of high occurrence. In addition both flock (flock size) and environmental variables (soil drainage) were found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of the disease. However, the model's AUC indicated unexplained variation remaining in the model and the source of this variation may lie in farm-level characteristics rather than spatially-varying ones such as environmental factors.
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