ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2009
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 326 papers.
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326 citing papers in PubMed.
- Application Prospects of Alginate Oligosaccharides in Regulating Maize Stress Tolerance: A Review.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Article
- Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield.Science advances · 2026Article
- The Association Between Heat Stress and Child Stunting, Wasting, and Underweight Under Varying Vegetation Covers in Ethiopia.Maternal & child nutrition · 2026Article
- Spatially explicit temperature optima improve climate impact assessment of global crop productivity.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Review
- Ambient heat and early childhood development: a cross-national analysis.Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines · 2026Article
- A hybrid Granger TCN framework for generating climate analogues and determining the future of agricultural practices.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Grain-maturing temperature induces seed epi-memory via DNA methylation for subsequent development in rice (Oryza sativa L.).Plant physiology · 2026Article
- LSTM-attention-guided graph neural networks for integrated genotype-Environment modeling in maize yield prediction.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Weather forecasts become more important for reducing mortality as the climate warms.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Extreme heat reduces and reshapes urban mobility.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Sustainable global irrigation expansion could support only two-thirds of croplands under 1.5 °C and 3 °C warming.Nature food · 2026Article
- Harnessing adaptation has increased French apple yields but heat stress mitigation will become essential by 2050.Nature food · 2026Article
- Cultivar evolution underpins maize yield sensitivity to adverse climate conditions.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Cold tolerance of maize inbred lines at the seed germination stage.Biologia futura · 2026Article
- Gender and culture shape prosociality more than heat stress in a five-country experiment.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- DNA methylation at OsAmy3E promoter is involved in grain quality under heat stress in rice (Oryza sativa L.).Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere.Nature food · 2026Article
266 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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2 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29 degrees C for corn, 30 degrees C for soybeans, and 32 degrees C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30-46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63-82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.
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