ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2009
Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Time for Medicine and Public Health to Leave Platform X.JMIR medical education · 2024Article
- Public health in times of crisis: An overlooked variable in city management theories?Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- Global Public Health Database Support to Population-Based Management of Pandemics and Global Public Health Crises, Part I: The Concept.Prehospital and disaster medicine · 2021Article
- Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Sports Health During the SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic.Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2020Article
- Place-based social contact and mixing: a typology of generic meeting places of relevance for infectious disease transmission.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Integrated Detection and Prediction of Influenza Activity for Real-Time Surveillance: Algorithm Design.Journal of medical Internet research · 2017Article
- Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Pandemic H1N1 in Canada and the use of evidence in developing public health policies--a policy analysis.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2013Article
- A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.Travel medicine and infectious disease · 2012Article
- Article
- Discussion: Managing late periprosthetic fluid collections (seroma) in patients with breast implants: a consensus panel recommendation and review of the literature.Plastic and reconstructive surgery · 2011Article
- Article
- A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2010Article
- Responses to pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Australia.Emerging infectious diseases · 2010Article
- Searching PubMed during a pandemic.PloS one · 2010Article
- Quantifying the impact of community quarantine on SARS transmission in Ontario: estimation of secondary case count difference and number needed to quarantine.BMC public health · 2009Article
- Assumptions management in simulation of infectious disease outbreaks.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2009Article
- Impact of precautionary behaviors during outbreaks of pandemic influenza: modeling of regional differences.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2009Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo examine the validity and usefulness of pandemic simulations aimed at informing practical decision-making in public health.
methodsWe recruited a multidisciplinary group of nine experts to assess a case-study simulation of influenza transmission in a Swedish county. We used a non-statistical nominal group technique to generate evaluations of the plausibility, formal validity (verification) and predictive validity of the simulation. A health-effect assessment structure was used as a framework for data collection.
findingsThe unpredictability of social order during disasters was not adequately addressed by simulation methods; even minor disruptions of the social order may invalidate key infrastructural assumptions underpinning current pandemic simulation models. Further, a direct relationship between model flexibility and computation time was noted. Consequently, simulation methods cannot, in practice, support integrated modifications of microbiological, epidemiological and spatial submodels or handle multiple parallel scenarios.
conclusionThe combination of incomplete surveillance data and simulation methods that neglect social dynamics limits the ability of national public health agencies to provide policy-makers and the general public with the critical and timely information needed during a pandemic.
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Registered trials
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