Evidence map›Paper›PMID 19515800›Full record

ArticleNephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association2009

A scoring system to predict renal outcome in IgA nephropathy: a nationwide 10-year prospective cohort study.

Masashi Goto, Kenji Wakai, Takashi Kawamura, Masahiko Ando, Masayuki Endoh, Yasuhiko Tomino

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Article in Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 146 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
146citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

146 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  7. Towards the best kidney failure prediction tool: a systematic review and selection aid.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2020
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  20. Albuminuria predicts kidney events in IgA nephropathy.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2025
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86 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Masashi GotoKyoto University Health Service, Kyoto, Japan. goto@msa.biglobe.ne.jp
Kenji Wakai
Takashi Kawamura
Masahiko Ando
Masayuki Endoh
Yasuhiko Tomino

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundImmunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common form of glomerulonephritis, and a substantial number of patients succumb to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, prediction of the renal outcome in individual patients remains difficult. We have already published a scoring system using the data in a prospective cohort of IgAN patients followed up from 1995 to 2002.

methodsThe cohort was further followed up until 2005 in 97 clinical units in Japan. The data from 2283 patients were analysed by Cox regression to determine the predictors of ESRD in IgAN, and their beta-coefficients were converted into scores to estimate ESRD risk within 10 years.

resultsDuring the follow-up (median, 87 months), 252 patients developed ESRD. Male sex, age less than 30 years, family histories of chronic renal failure and chronic glomerulonephritis, hypertension, proteinuria, mild haematuria, hypoalbuminaemia, low glomerular filtration rate and a high histological grade at initial renal biopsy were associated with the risk of ESRD in the multivariable analysis. A scoring system was framed to estimate the 10-year ESRD risk using eight variables significant in both univariable and multivariable models. This prognostic score accurately classified patients by risk: patients with estimates of 0-4.9, 5.0-19.9, 20.0-49.9 and 50.0-100% had an observed incidence of 1.7, 8.3, 36.7 and 85.5%, respectively. The corresponding area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval, 0.925-0.958).

conclusionThis validated scoring system to quantitatively estimate ESRD risk during the 10-year follow-up of IgAN patients will serve as a useful prognostic tool in clinical practice.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGlomerulonephritis, IGAHumansKidney Failure, ChronicMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentTime FactorsYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID19515800
PMCPMC2747499

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.