ArticleBritish journal of cancer2009
Mean sojourn time, overdiagnosis, and reduction in advanced stage prostate cancer due to screening with PSA: implications of sojourn time on screening.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 76 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Models in Prostate Cancer: Exploring New Developments in Testing and Diagnosis.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2022Pooled it
- Circulating adiponectin and leptin and risk of overall and aggressive prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2021Pooled it
- Quantifying and monitoring overdiagnosis in cancer screening: a systematic review of methods.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2015Pooled it
- Screening for prostate cancer.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2013Pooled it
- Trial
- Stage shift in PSA-detected prostate cancers - effect modification by Gleason score.Journal of medical screening · 2009Trial
- Variation in prostate cancer growth rates in an MRI-based active surveillance cohort.European radiology · 2026Article
- Observational
- Assessment of a Polygenic Risk Score in Screening for Prostate Cancer.The New England journal of medicine · 2025Observational
- Estimating sojourn time and sensitivity of screening for ovarian cancer using a Bayesian framework.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Article
- Article
- 25 year trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK, 1993-2018: retrospective secondary analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2024Article
- Quantifying the potential benefits of early detection for pancreatic cancer through a counterfactual simulation modeling analysis.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The impact of socioeconomic status on the survival of men with early-onset prostate cancer.American journal of clinical and experimental urology · 2023Article
- Review
- Prevention of Advanced Cancer by Vitamin DNutrients · 2021Article
- Benefit, Harm, and Cost-effectiveness Associated With Magnetic Resonance Imaging Before Biopsy in Age-based and Risk-stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer.JAMA network open · 2021Article
- The comparative effectiveness of mpMRI and MRI-guided biopsy vs regular biopsy in a population-based PSA testing: a modeling study.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Urban-Rural Differences in Clinical Characteristics of Prostate Cancer at Initial Diagnosis: A Single-Center Observational Study in Anhui Province, China.Frontiers in oncology · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
This study aimed to assess the mean sojourn time (MST) of prostate cancer, to estimate the probability of overdiagnosis, and to predict the potential reduction in advanced stage disease due to screening with PSA. The MST of prostate cancer was derived from detection rates at PSA prevalence testing in 43,842 men, aged 50-69 years, as part of the ProtecT study, from the incidence of non-screen-detected cases obtained from the English population-based cancer registry database, and from PSA sensitivity obtained from the medical literature. The relative reduction in advanced stage disease was derived from the expected and observed incidences of advanced stage prostate cancer. The age-specific MST for men aged 50-59 and 60-69 years were 11.3 and 12.6 years, respectively. Overdiagnosis estimates increased with age; 10-31% of the PSA-detected cases were estimated to be overdiagnosed. An interscreening interval of 2 years was predicted to result in 37 and 63% reduction in advanced stage disease in men 65-69 and 50-54 years, respectively. If the overdiagnosed cases were excluded, the estimated reductions were 9 and 54%, respectively. Thus, the benefit of screening in reducing advanced stage disease is limited by overdiagnosis, which is greater in older men.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.