ArticleInterdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases2009
Smallpox and season: reanalysis of historical data.
Article in Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Article
- We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polio.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Modelling the impact of a smallpox attack in India and influence of disease control measures.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries.PLoS biology · 2020Article
- An Analysis of the United States and United Kingdom Smallpox Epidemics (1901-5) - The Special Relationship that Tested Public Health Strategies for Disease Control.Medical history · 2020Article
- The calendar of epidemics: Seasonal cycles of infectious diseases.PLoS pathogens · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Seasonal variation in smallpox transmission is one of the most pressing ecological questions and is relevant to bioterrorism preparedness. The present study reanalyzed 7 historical datasets which recorded monthly cases or deaths. In addition to time series analyses of reported data, an estimation and spectral analysis of the effective reproduction number at calendar time t, R(t), were made. Meteorological variables were extracted from a report in India from 1890-1921 and compared with smallpox mortality as well as R(t). Annual cycles of smallpox transmission were clearly shown not only in monthly reports but also in the estimates of R(t). Even short-term epidemic data clearly exhibited an annual peak every January. Both mortality and R(t) revealed significant negative association (P < .01) and correlation (P < .01), respectively, with humidity. These findings suggest that smallpox transmission greatly varies with season and is most likely enhanced by dry weather.
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Registered trials
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